Group stage round two!

10 Jun

I love when I get things right and let’s be honest, I’m never wrong. Sometimes rounding comes in to play but I’m never wrong. Let’s run through a recap of the first round bets and move on to winning more.

Nigeria tied Sweden 3-3, great pick having Nigeria +1.0,1.5. I would’ve gone crazy watching the game as they were down 2-0 at half. Nigeria looks to be an underrated team in their group and hopefully more spreads like this will be available. Canada scored a PK goal in the last 30 seconds of their game with China busting a nice pick into a push. Ugh, like kissing your sister. At least it wasn’t a loss like the parlay, both picks of which failed to come through. I’d like to blame rounding on this but I’m shocked Spain couldn’t beat Costa Rica. France and Brazil won, scoring a nice profit. Columbia tied Mexico late, swapping my larger profit for a lesser one but it’s still in the green. The bigger loss of the round was the Switzerland-Japan over 2.5. The only goal came from a Japan PK. The game looked poor offensively so I research the data to see why I had such high projections. The Swiss and Japanese tend to run up the score on lesser opponents but only really score one goal per game against average level talent. In summary, it was rounding.

Thursdays (hopefully) winning picks:

New Zealand +1.0,1.0 (+115) v Canada: Hedging this long term Canada bet again. The number also show that Canada is only slightly better than New Zealand. I wanted to bet the tie here but I’m taking the safer route.

Netherlands +0.0,-0.5 (-115) v China: China just doesn’t score. Netherlands should net one if they can get through the back line. Hoping for a 1-0 game.

Thailand (+315) v Ivory Coast: I don’t understand Vegas sometimes. Thailand is ranked as a better team and Ivory Coast just got beat by 10. Uggggggly. Maybe topbet posted the wrong line again (shit happens) but Thailand has a 0.67 and Ivory Coast has a -0.88 WGFLGA. A negative 0.88! A team that is favored has a negative WGFLGA! Only three team in the Women’s World Cup has a negative rating. Ecuador (-1.11), and Costa Rica (-0.19). I would love to bet the house, boat, farm, river, and kitchen sink on this. Not only do I not have many of those but it’s tough putting so much confidence in Thailand.

Here is the link for my WWC bets, feel free to tag along wherever you can find a line.

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