I have compiled a list of all the Kentucky Derby prep races for 2016. The list includes the top four finishers of each race and the respective winning Beyer figure. I also included the points that the Derby assigns for qualification purposes.
I made a few calculations, playing around with the points and adjusting for Beyers to see which horse would be the best in the field according to their prep races.
Using the Derby’s points unadjusted results in following leaderboard:
There is no change in positioning when comparing weighted points to the standard points but the ratio notes that Exaggerator and Danzig Candy ran well in their point scoring results.
In my revised points’ spreadsheet, I adjusted the points for the top four finishers to what I thought they should be. I believe this chart better reflects how the horse raced recently and mild position changes when ranking the horses by weighted points.
Gun Runner falls to 6th in the revised points and Mor Spirit is the leader. This shows that he can win but had done so at slower Beyers (~90).Nyquist has the same amount of wins, but is barely ahead of Mohaymen (who has a better ratio rank) on the leaderboard.
When I changed the points for every prep race to 40, 30, 20, 10 for W, P, S, 4th the clear leader, in both points and weighted points, is Mor Spirit, followed by Exaggerator, Mohaymen, and Nyquist. I’m viewing this as good news for Mor Spirit because with 2 win and 3 place finishes, this horse can find the finish line while notching a good Beyer to boot.
Feel free to make any changes to the linked spreadsheets and let me know what theories you come up with.
-The Bozeek
Mild disclosures: My assumed winning Beyer value of The Kentucky Derby is 109. Weighted points would not change if the winning Beyer was higher or lower but the Ratios would. The spreadsheet only includes whether a horse finished in the top four during a prep race. If they didn’t finish in the top four or had raced outside the preps it would change the results. For this reason, one must view the calculations as the horse/contenders best effort (which is assumed would be need to win the Derby).
POINTS: Accumulated Kentucky Derby points from Prep races (no adjustment)
WEIGHTED POINTS: Significance of points based on winning Beyer speed compared to all prep races
RATIO: Comparison of Weighted points v Points, higher ratio the better performance (on average)
RATIO RANK: Highest to lowest ratio ranking.
Derby prep races (no adjustments): https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxHa3oQQog1iQlZFMTJsZFdDTTg
Revised points spreadsheet: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxHa3oQQog1ibk1LaGljb3NpSzA
Equal points spreadsheet: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxHa3oQQog1id2Nlbi10am5WZUk
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