Streaks? Round of 16 WWC bets!

Have you ever gone on a big losing streak but know it’s going to turn around soon? I’m not at a big losing streak…yet. I would consider a big streak about 6 or 7 bets in a row. I’ve lost the last 4 bets but I’m still above 23% ROI and floating at a .500 record. My picks will turn around for the round of 16 betting because all of my info has been updated. The group games helped recompute the data and strengthened a few teams, like Switzerland, and weakened a few teams, like France. Will the adjusted data I picked up 6 bets for the round of 16. Some are value bets and others are just plain winners.

Germany v Sweden (-243): Germany is the better team here. They have a 3.45 WGFLGA, the highest of all tournament teams, and Sweden has 1.63. I wanted to take Germany with a one goal spread (-1.0) but the price was too steep. I swapped in the moneyline and expect a 2-0 gewinner!
Australia (+0.5,0.5) v Brazil (+110) & Australia-Brazil O2.5 (-105): The Aussies have looked great so far in the tournament. Brazil, not so much. They barely pulled out a victory against Costa Rica, knocking out the Lady Champion Killers. I could see the Matildas squeaking out a 2-1 victory against Brazil. This should be a great game to watch.

Switzerland (+0.5,1.0) Canada (-120): I went double on this bet for a few reasons. First, Switzerland has played well in the tournament so far, there rankings are better than Canada (and we’re getting a spread!). Secondly, I have a future bet with Canada to win it all. If Canada has a poor showing and loses, I’ll re-coop some of that wasted future bet.
England-Norway O2.0 (-125) & Netherlands-Japan O2.0 (-140): For both of these over bets. I’m taking them at their value. England – Norway should be around a two goal game based on my data set but having the spread at 2 instead of 2.5 is worth betting. The same thinking goes for the Netherlands – Japan game. The data sets shows around a 2 but both teams don’t allow many goals. I thought about parlaying these bets but it’s more likely that one will win and the other will push.

These bets should end my losing, but I’m still a winner (at least that’s what my mom tells me, ha). Do you remember a big losing streak in your bets before? When you came through it did you keep winning? As if everything you bet became a winner? Let me know about those streaks, the winning streaks are fantastic but sometimes the losing streaks are just as funny.

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Women’s World Cup Betting – opening matches

There’s fun to be had with the Women’s World Cup. I’ve created a similar ranking system to Men’s World Cup (which netted me a nice ROI).

The link for my bets made during the World Cup (WC) is here. The reasoning for my bets is below.

USA (+350) and Canada (+1200) to win the World Cup: These are rather simpleton bets. USA is a homer bet and I actually like the odds. Canada getting 12-1 is ridiculous. They should win their group with relative ease and have one of the easier elimination schedules to get through. They’re also hosting the WC. I know, hosting teams don’t usually win (only men’s or women’s team to host and win was USA in 1999) but I think it gives them a partial home turf advantage.

Nigeria +1.0,+1.5 (+100) v Sweden: Let’s explain these Asian Odds first; by betting this type of line you get both lines in your wager. Your bet is split down the middle, so for my Jackson wager, one Hamilton gets the +1.0 line and another Hammy gets the +1.5 line. As for the match, Nigeria plays way below the level of their competition, but their Weighted Goals For (WGF) less Goals Against (GA) [WFFLGA] is only 0.3 less than Sweden. I like the line and if Sweden wins by 1 I’ll profit an extra Hammy.

China +1.0 (-110) v Canada: There are a few reason for this bet. I’m banking on a slow start for the home-opener. This happens in a bunch of WC’s. The host nation has the most pressure of any team and I could see Canada getting a draw even if they should win. If Canada loses, my future bet isn’t looking too good any more so it’s also a bit of a hedge. The odds on China winning (+515) were too good to pass up and because I like Spain over Costa Rica I parlayed them to increase the payout.

Switzerland-Japan Over (O) 2.5 (-135): Both of these teams give up one goal per game on average and score a lot (2.8 WGF). I like the possibility of a high scoring game here.

France (-147) v England: This should be one of the better games of the opening round. France is a half goal better by WFFLGA. France has the 4th highest WGF (behind Germany, Australia, and USA) of the tournament teams. England is 13th.

Columbia +0.5 v Mexico & Under (U) 2: The combined WFFLGA for these teams is 2.2, Columbia has a higher mark which led me to the spread bet. That’s rather low. Colombia allows less than half a goal per game so I’m taking the under.

Brazil (-225) v Korea: If anyone saw the Korea-USA game and didn’t get extremely angry that the USA couldn’t score against a team that only had possession 40% of the time you’ll understand. Brazil has finishers and will put shots away that the USA didn’t in that friendly. The only thing I felt gave Korea the 0-0 draw was their keeper. I don’t see her shutting out Brazil’s offense and Korea did not have a worthy attack that would be able to score against Brazil.

This will be the spreadsheet of my bets during the Women’s World Cup. I will update every time I make a bet. Feel free to follow in my footsteps as I’m sure this will be winning picks.

Hardest game(s) of the year

A bad week following an awful season. I should try to be wrong and then maybe I’ll get some right. Well the last two weeks of the season are here. When I use to play sports the semi-final game, or the game to get you into the championship is the hardest game you’ll play all season. The reasoning is that you must execute everything you’ve learned to get to the championship game. If you don’t get there no one will remember you (unless you’re the USSR in the Lake Placid Olympics) and peeps won’t remember you for how hard you played unless you win. The championship or Super Bowl game has a totally different mentality. You’re there, you’re playing for all the marbles, coaches don’t need to coach anymore, talent will speak for itself, and the best team usually wins.

With that said I should prolly take the favorites going into this weekend but I’ve been wrong enough this year. I like the underdog mentality for the Ravens and the Falcons. They haven’t gotten enough respect and I see them trying to prove something before a Super Bowl no one expected.

Ravens +9 Patriots – Belichek and Brady execute seamlessly but Flacco is a bit underrated but could continue the trend of bad QBs to win the Lombardi trophy for Baltimore. Calling it Ravens 27 – Patriots 24

Falcons +4 49ers – Kaepernick-ing isn’t that cool. I’ve been kissing my biceps for years and it never caught on. But I digress. Last week every announcer in America said the Falcons’ D couldn’t defend Russell Wilson because of the footage they viewed when they played Cam Newton. Somehow this didn’t work but peeps are saying the same thing about Kaep. If Matty Ice can score in any given 25 seconds I don’t think they’ll lose. Calling it Falcons 26 – 49ers 24

Check this out Monday and I’ll put a couple Super Bowl polls up.

Good luck and may you cover!

Playoff props galore!

1-3 last week. Shucks. And this week of the playoffs looks difficult. Peeps are going hard on both sides of most every game and only having 4 available makes it tough. Fortunately with fewer games the more ridiculous the prop bets get. My picks and props below:

Ravens +16 Broncos & Texans +15.5 Patriots (6 point teaser) – Sure it looks easy but who knows. Winning both of these pay the same as a regular pick with the regular spread. Playoff games shouldn’t be blowouts and both the Ravens and Texans have a chance to win outright.

Ravens – Broncos U46 – P. Manning isn’t phenomenal playing outdoors late in the season. This will be his biggest test of the season. The high for the day is a whopping 19 degrees. Gonna be cold, suit up and get ready for a field goal contest.

Ravens – Broncos Longest TD yardage U44.5 – I don’t see Manning bombing passes with it being so cold out, nor do I see Ray Rice busting a draw play for 45 yards.

49ers-Packers 1st quarter U9: I saw this prop and thought ‘Wow, it’ll go way over 9’ Then looking at the research, both teams have really low scoring 1st quarters.

As for picking the games straight up I like the Broncos, Packers, Atlanta, & Texans.

Good luck and may you cover!

Prop bets found here!

Update: Ugh, this week is not looking good.

Playoffs?! Playoff?! Wild Card Weekend

Just went through my regular season picks and it looks like I scored a dismal 48% going 31-33-0. Somehow I’m still floating and hope to have enough confidence left to actually post a Superbowl pick. 

Time to use all of what’s left in the account and blow it before the ‘bet-to-end-all-bets (to be continued)’ Only four games this week so I’ll pick em all straight up and with the spreads.

Bengals +4.5 Texans – Although I like the Texans to win, I think this will be a low scoring field goal battle.

Vikings +7.5 Green Bay – I don’t know if I’ll pull the trigger on the streaking Vikes but I definitely like the points. Green Bay in a squeaker 21-20

Colts +6.5 Ravens – I like the Ravens to win but this should be a low scoring overtime battle.

Seahawks -2.5 Redskins – The Pete Carroll’s are underrated by a field goal here. They may be on the road but their D is on adderal so I see them taking it to the house 27-18

Team to win the Superbowl – Well I took the 49ers at the beginning of the season, so for so good but they can’t do it with Kapernick. No rookie QB will win it so that eliminates the Seahawks, Redskins, and Colts. Ravens won’t because they fired their offensive coordinator when they had a winning record and that’s bad karma. The Broncos and Falcons can’t win cause they’re the one seeds. We’re left with the Patriots/Texans/Bengals in the AFC so I’ll take the Texans per above and because I hate Tom Brady. In the NFC we have the Vikings and Packers remaining and above I took the Pack so I’ll stick with them to even win it all.

Packers Superbowl 7-1

Packers NFC 3-1

Texans AFC 6-1

I would suggest taking each time these teams play and rolling the winnings into the next week because it will pay better than the odds listed above. If you really have faith in me you should parlay both the Packers and Texans moneylines the whole way and let-it-ride on the Pack to win it but then again since I’m picking these teams they prolly won’t win at all.

Good luck and may you cover!

For those that have the extra for their picks, sign up here!

Meaning-less/ful week 17 picks

Going 2-4 last week was not what I planned. Glad I picked up the Vikings moneyline though. Week 17 is usually a tough week for picks, as some teams need to win (and fall on their face), and some teams don’t care (but play out of their minds). My picks below:

Colts +6.5 Texans – Pagano is back leading to a pumped up Colts team and stadium. The Texans have never won in Indy and I don’t see them beating cancer like Chuck did. Calling it Colts 23 – Texans 20 [game is ‘marked’ by most books so their not offering a moneyline yet]

Lions +3 Bears – The next two picks I’m taking because of what’s at stake; Calvin Johnson needs 108 yards to reach 2,000 receiving yards for the season. They give him all the passes he can handle to reach that mark. The Bears are not a legit team and I see failure in Detriot on Sunday.

Vikings +3.5 Packers – I mentioned AP being the reason the Vikings would win last week. He wasn’t the reason for them winning but they still took out the Texans. The Vikings are playing to make the playoffs and I think AP’s teammates will play harder trying to get him 207 yards.

Well I’m riding the ‘dogs this week, hope they come through.

Good luck and may you cover!

Picks fitting for the end of the world

Not a great week last week. Fortunately, I doubled down on the Panthers after seeing how bad my 1pm EST games were looking. The world is supposed to end today, although I wasn’t given any warning of the skies falling from Australia yet, so I got my picks in already. Waiting on some of these lines could be helpful if you want the hook moved or better juice.

Seahawks	49ers	pick
Cowboys	Saints	-3.0
Giants	Ravens	-2.5
Browns	Broncos	13.5
Buccaneers	Rams	-3.0
Vikings	Texans	7.5

These games are listed in order of how much I like them.

Seahawks pick 49ers – The public my push this line to +1 because they saw the Niners do well against the Patriots, making a statement to be ranked the best team in the league. My issue, and I took the 49ers to win the Superbowl before week 1, is that they can’t win the Superbowl with Kapernick. This is the same reason I’m taking the Seahawks. Russell Wilson has nerves of steel (see the call). Yes, it was the wrong call but that’s still a great throw as a rookie.

Cowboys -3 (+105) Saints – I got burned with the Cowboys last week, I thought they’d be distracted with off-the-field incidences but they took the game into OT and won it. After seeing   the last two weeks, I think the ‘boys are on a roll and take it to the Saints pulling it off pre-OT this time. Calling it 24-20.

Giants -2.5 Ravens – Love the hook on this game. The Ravens are sliding and Gmen are coming back from a blowout in Atlanta. Coughlin may kill his players if they lose this game. I like them on the road to cover the points.

Browns +13.5 Broncos – I don’t see the Broncos running up the score in this one. The Browns could be this years’ best-worst team. A crappy record but decent defense doesn’t allow teams to cover by two touchdowns.

Buccaneers -3 Rams – Yes, yes, yes I keep taking the Bucs and keep losing with them. Something’s gotta change, right?

Vikings +7.5 Texans – AP, AP, AP, AP, AP, AP, AP, is going for the rushing record and should be able to conquer a good Texans run defense. Even if the Texans expect the run and stack the box, Christian may ponder (ha!) throwing the ball against a bad pass defense. I like this as a upset but won’t put much on it. Calling it Vikings 21-20.

Good luck and may you cover!

Shake it like a salt shaka – Week 15

Going 5-1 last week was awesome if not just plain skeet. Hoping for a dog-filled weekend of fun. My picks below:

Jaguars	Dolphins	7.5
Colts	Texans	9.5
Steelers	Cowboys	-1.5
Buccaneers	Saints	3.5
Panthers	Chargers	+135

Jaguars +7.5 Dolphins: It hurt me to take this pick but the Dolphins are bad at home and the Jaguars are better when they play on the road, I like where the hook is, calling it Dolphins 23 Jaguars 17

Colts +9.5 Texans: A lot of people are on the Colts this game, I also couldn’t turn down 9.5 points against the team I saw play against the Pats Monday night. These teams are in the same division, but haven’t played each other yet. There next game together is week 17, nice job with that scheduling. Division games aren’t typically a 10-point blowout (ignore last week Seahawks-Cardinals game).

Steelers -1.5 Cowboys: Two reasons, Big Ben is back, and Cowboys will be distracted from thinking about there teammates passing the previous Saturday.

Buccaneers +3.5 Saints: The Bucs have lost 3 straight so I see Schiano pulling out a few knives to get the victory. (Side note: anybody else confused that Schiano wants kickoffs abolished because one of his Rutgers players was paralyzed during a return but he continues to rush the QB when down by 8 with the other team in victory formation?)

Panthers +135 Chargers: I don’t believe the Chargers actually won last week against the Steelers (note if Brown had kicked the ball out of the endzone for a safety, instead of a fumble recovered TD, the game could’ve been different). I think the Panthers are streaking and Cam Newton may have more sponsors than wins but his commercials are hilarious.

Good luck and may you cover!

Throwing up a hail mary

Last week was disappointing not only to lose my picks but to watch the Jaguars under perform in person. It poured most of the game and I left with soaking wet shoes and less moola in my pocket. I don’t typically hold grudges but I’m taking my anger from last weeks game and turning on the Jags against my Jets this week. I haven’t liked any of the spread this week so I’ve decided to emulate my friends horse betting style which is to pick every horse except the favorite and put them in a convoluted wheel. Somehow this has worked for him, I hate the ponies, and prefer S’mores at a campfire.

Texans	Patriots	+3.5
Cowboys	Bengals	+3
Jets	Jaguars	-2.5
Titans	Colts	+5.5
Browns	Chiefs	-6.5
Panthers	Falcons	+3.5

I am picking a season-high six games and hope to hit atleast four (66.6%, devil-like no?)

Texans +3.5 Patriots: The Pats are not as good as people think they are. They play in a crappy division and have lost to legit bad teams. I heard that Brady hasn’t lost at home in December, does this really make any sense? Odds are most of those games were against the Bills, Jets, or Dolphins and the Pats lost to the Cardinals at home in Week 2. Unfortunately, I don’t think people will get off their knees for Brady anytime soon but I see him throwing a couple interceptions and going to the sideline to put his Uggs on after JJ Watt sacks him for the game in the fourth.

Cowboys +3 Bengals: This game worries me but if Romo shows up, with help from a returning Demarco Murray, they could win this game, albeit in Cincinnati. The Cowboys are surprisingly only a game behind the Gmen for the division lead. I think they need this game more and show up Sunday.

Jets -2.5 Jaguars: Fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck the Jags. Cecil Shorts, whom I raved about last week, is out with  a concussion (even though he passed concussion tests). I’m a Jets fan (yes, it’s sad) and want McElroy to start but Sanchez should play alright after an awful week. They need to win out against under .500 teams to have a chance at the playoff (why am I hoping for this?)

Titans +5.5 Colts: This game will be closer than people think. I don’t usually take a team getting points if I don’t think they can win the game but Chris Johnson is due for a big game (he’s been due since his signed that contract) and the Colts have an anemic run defense. <Insert Andrew Luck type pun> the Colts may also over look the Titans to next weeks game at Houston.

Browns -6.5 Chiefs: Could be a low scoring game which is a problem for a touchdown type cover but I see the Browns winning by 8 enroute to a Bad-team-that’s-no-so-bad title. Too soon to make bad jokes here so I’ll just include a video made by God on why he hates Cleveland.

Panthers +3.5 Falcons: The Panthers find ways to lose close games and the Falcons find ways to win close games. I can see the Falcons winning by a point or not bringing their all for a division game when they’ve already locked up the division. The Falcons may have a decent lead at half but the sleepy Panthers will get annoyed and decide to actually win a game this year.

Good luck and may you cover!

Update: I hit oil! 5 for 5 so far and hedged the Texans bet to lock in an all-time high in winnings for the week. 

Wishing for two front teeth and a better year

I think I’ve just finished the worst year of my life so far. If life gets worse than this year, I will reconsider humanities’ existence. To make lemonade out of this situation would be to move on quicker than before and fix whatever it is that didn’t create enough happiness during the last year.

Rams +7.5 49ers: I do not trust Kaepernick even after playing well over the last two games. This again is a divisional game and I see the Rams keeping it within a field goal at home.

Buccaneers +7 Broncos: The Bucs are 8-2-1 ATS and I keep picking them. The Broncos are good, and Peyton Manning made them much better than I thought but this should be a close low scoring game.

Jaguars +6 Bills: I usually worry when I take a pick and most everyone else follows suit. I’ve been waiting for this spread to come out at +3 and I was ready to pounce, but +6, huh? Only way the Buffalo Jills cover this line is in OT and they get the ball first.

Good luck and may you cover!