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Playoffs?! Playoff?! Wild Card Weekend

4 Jan

Just went through my regular season picks and it looks like I scored a dismal 48% going 31-33-0. Somehow I’m still floating and hope to have enough confidence left to actually post a Superbowl pick. 

Time to use all of what’s left in the account and blow it before the ‘bet-to-end-all-bets (to be continued)’ Only four games this week so I’ll pick em all straight up and with the spreads.

Bengals +4.5 Texans – Although I like the Texans to win, I think this will be a low scoring field goal battle.

Vikings +7.5 Green Bay – I don’t know if I’ll pull the trigger on the streaking Vikes but I definitely like the points. Green Bay in a squeaker 21-20

Colts +6.5 Ravens – I like the Ravens to win but this should be a low scoring overtime battle.

Seahawks -2.5 Redskins – The Pete Carroll’s are underrated by a field goal here. They may be on the road but their D is on adderal so I see them taking it to the house 27-18

Team to win the Superbowl – Well I took the 49ers at the beginning of the season, so for so good but they can’t do it with Kapernick. No rookie QB will win it so that eliminates the Seahawks, Redskins, and Colts. Ravens won’t because they fired their offensive coordinator when they had a winning record and that’s bad karma. The Broncos and Falcons can’t win cause they’re the one seeds. We’re left with the Patriots/Texans/Bengals in the AFC so I’ll take the Texans per above and because I hate Tom Brady. In the NFC we have the Vikings and Packers remaining and above I took the Pack so I’ll stick with them to even win it all.

Packers Superbowl 7-1

Packers NFC 3-1

Texans AFC 6-1

I would suggest taking each time these teams play and rolling the winnings into the next week because it will pay better than the odds listed above. If you really have faith in me you should parlay both the Packers and Texans moneylines the whole way and let-it-ride on the Pack to win it but then again since I’m picking these teams they prolly won’t win at all.

Good luck and may you cover!

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Shake it like a salt shaka – Week 15

15 Dec

Going 5-1 last week was awesome if not just plain skeet. Hoping for a dog-filled weekend of fun. My picks below:

Jaguars Dolphins 7.5
Colts Texans 9.5
Steelers Cowboys -1.5
Buccaneers Saints 3.5
Panthers Chargers +135

Jaguars +7.5 Dolphins: It hurt me to take this pick but the Dolphins are bad at home and the Jaguars are better when they play on the road, I like where the hook is, calling it Dolphins 23 Jaguars 17

Colts +9.5 Texans: A lot of people are on the Colts this game, I also couldn’t turn down 9.5 points against the team I saw play against the Pats Monday night. These teams are in the same division, but haven’t played each other yet. There next game together is week 17, nice job with that scheduling. Division games aren’t typically a 10-point blowout (ignore last week Seahawks-Cardinals game).

Steelers -1.5 Cowboys: Two reasons, Big Ben is back, and Cowboys will be distracted from thinking about there teammates passing the previous Saturday.

Buccaneers +3.5 Saints: The Bucs have lost 3 straight so I see Schiano pulling out a few knives to get the victory. (Side note: anybody else confused that Schiano wants kickoffs abolished because one of his Rutgers players was paralyzed during a return but he continues to rush the QB when down by 8 with the other team in victory formation?)

Panthers +135 Chargers: I don’t believe the Chargers actually won last week against the Steelers (note if Brown had kicked the ball out of the endzone for a safety, instead of a fumble recovered TD, the game could’ve been different). I think the Panthers are streaking and Cam Newton may have more sponsors than wins but his commercials are hilarious.

Good luck and may you cover!

Week 12 picks, stuffed with leftovers

23 Nov

I’ve had more time than usually to look at this weeks lines and I hate all of them. I think it would be tough to do better than 60% picking most of the games this week. Since I see betting accounts as an investment and I would like it to increase every week, I’ll still make a few bets (some really dumb) and take some of the safer moneylines instead.

Bears (no line yet) Vikings – There hasn’t been a line made yet but it should be around -6. This could swing 5 points (Millman rankings) depending on whether Cutler starts or not. I’ll take this moneyline either way because I think the Bears are better than people are giving them credit for.

Ravens (-1) ChargersNorv Turner is one of the longest lasting bad coaches in the league. If the Ravens play decent on offense, I see the Ravens taking over the game in the second half.

Jaguars (+4) Titans – Peeps are all over the Titans (opened at +3), but the Jaguars are a better team than anyone thinks. Close losses are just as good as a win over a bad team when looking at spreads. Unfortunately, the Jags have lost by double digits in most of their home games, which gives me cause to worry, but I don’t think Moore’s performance last week was a fluke. Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts are good receivers.

Enjoy the leftovers

Good luck and may you cover!

J-E-T-S! & other Week 4 p-i-c-k-s

27 Sep

If I wasn’t a Jets fan this pick would be much easier. I unfortunately suffer through their games like the rest of NY (Giants fans can relate, but they have two much more recent Superbowls) I heard the statistic last week and it makes logical sense. A west coast team has never won on the east coast in a 1 o’clock game. 1 pm EST = 10am PT. That’s not very friendly to the 49ers even though they are most likely a better team. I took Jets moneyline (+175*) and will parlay them (+4) with some other picks later this weekend.

I’m running a great 3-0 in games involving the Giants ATS so I’ll push my luck and see if the streak continues. Philly is 2-1 in close wins and a blowout loss to the unappreciated Cardinals. Andy Reid hates losing, as much as I hated the hook on last week Ravens game, and rarely falters after a loss. I’ll take the Eagles (-1.5) because they’re home.

Of my next three picks, I’ll decide how hard I take them later but I like ’em and I like ’em good:

Bills (+4.5) v Patriots – someone needs to punch Tom Brady in the face, I hope it’s Mario Williams, divisional games should not have this kind of spread in away games. Peeps need to stop betting the Patriots.

Cardinals (-6) v Dolphins – I would like this to come down a bit but the Cardinals have shown they’re legit this season and the Dolphins suffered in the Jets game last week when Reggie Bush (didn’t practice Wed.) went out.

Buccaneers (-2.5) v Redskins – Bucs are doing well ATS this year, meaning they’ve been underrated thus far, the Redskins have been hyped due to RG3 . Defense decides this game, I’ll think about the under (48).

Good luck!

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This does not look good. Jets and Bills got blown out. I got all of my other picks wrong so far. I’ll be saved if the Cardinals pull of a 13-0 halftime deficit, the Bucs can pull off a current 14-3 deficit, and the Eagles beat the Giants. SON OF A GUN! Bad week.

Giants v. Panthers (Thursday, week 3)

20 Sep

Why am I picking all the Giants games? This shouldn’t be happening, maybe I know too much about the team. I’ve followed them from afar since my dad is a fan. Spread opened as a pick and has moved to G-men +1. Since it’s a Thursday game I took  it already (Giants ML +110).

The Panthers might be a decent team this year. Odds at the beginning of the season were that they’d be better than last year (6-10). Highly possible (if Newton doesn’t get hit by a bus).

I’m using simple logic on this one…Panthers lost to the Buccaneers, Giants beat the Bucs. If A > B, & B > C, then A > C. Football might not work like this and it is in Carolina (Giants are good on the road and 4-3-1 ATS away last season). I’ll rely on Eli for this one.

Prediction: Giants 28-17

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Falcons v. Chiefs

31 Aug

I’m taking the Falcons moneyline (-130) as I saw the line move from -1 to -2 and don’t want to be burned with a one-point win.

With the depth in receiving that the Falcons have, Matt Ryan needs to step up and get his team a playoff win. Mike Smith, Falcons head coach, is 0-3 in the playoffs, most recently they were stomped by the Giants 24-2.

As ugly as that score was, I don’t see the Chiefs recovering from last season. Sure they’ve made improvements in their run game but the Falcons have a good run defense. The Chiefs will do alright in the middle of the season, maybe towards the end but I don’t see them as a consistent enough team, that’s good enough to beat the Falcons (yes, I know the Falcons are inconsistent too).

Ryan should be able to put this game away at the end of the third quarter and then the Falcons will most likely rely on their defense to close out the fourth quarter to win it.