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Beam me up some redemption!

26 Oct

This is all about redemption, I’m coming back with a vengeance. After a couple weeks of stagnant losses, I’m doubling my bet amounts and decreasing the amount of parlays I squander.

Jets -2.5 Dolphins : As ‘Beam me up’ Scotty said, “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” this line doesn’t make sense. For those that took the Dolphins in the last meeting were fooled by an overtime field goal. If you get fooled again on this one, it’s your own fault. The Jets had a decent loss against the Patriots, and although they are banged up, the Dolphins’ best shot at the pro-bowl is their punter. Jets won their last meeting 23-20 in overtime in Miami. They won’t need overtime to get this one done.

Chargers -3 Browns : Are we sure this is the right line? Chargers have a good run defense (70 ish ypg allowed) and the Browns have an injured Trent Richardson that couldn’t get it done against the Colts (I took the Browns last week) with one of the league’s worst d’s. Philip Rivers is coming off an ugly 6 turnover game v Denver but had a bye week to forget about it. Bye week teams are around 70% ATS this season (although I don’t like the other teams coming of byes this week as much).

As I said, I’m taking these teams hard. I suggest the parlay which will this free dollar into $3.50. I know, you’re welcome.

Good luck and may you cover.

Update: The Jets’ spread has dropped to -1.5 and I’m storming mad. There is no reason to not take it at that line as well, except for the thought that I could lose both. Yeah, sure that could happen. 

The Jaguars were listed at +15.5 and +850 moneyline v. the Packers a couple days ago, now the lines have dropped to +14.5 and +750 ML. I can’t see a 15 point spread being covered and the Packers are only 4-3, might see where this line is at Sunday morning.

Also thinking about the Saints moneyline v. the Broncos, have time to make that move, maybe I’ll see how bad my Jets pick is first.

Parlay my picks [Jets -1.5, Chargers -3, Jaguars +14.5, & Saints +6] Bet $1, which you get for free by clicking this, and it’ll turn into $11 when we hit.

Week 5 picks

7 Oct

Didn’t get to do enough research Friday and had to study during the day Saturday so these may be late but here they are.

Browns Giants 8.5
Titans Vikings 5.5
Patriots Broncos -6.5
Seahawks Panthers 2.5 (-105)
Colts Packers 7

Browns (+8.5) v Giants: I’m forcing myself to pick this game because I haven’t lost in a game involving the Giants this year, took Philly at -1.5 last week. I could see this game coming down to Giants trying to get up by two scores to put the game away. That wouldn’t be nice but I also noticed the O/U is 44. I can’t see the Giants winning by more than 10 with a total so low. Could happen, but I say Browns (+8.5).

Titans (+5.5) v Vikings: When was the last time someone said the Vikings were overrated, prolly when they had old man Fav-re. There’s something about Ma-tt Hasslebeck that makes me think the Titans could win this. I’ll think about the moneyline (+210) tomorrow morning. For those that found the joke in there, congrats.

Patriots (-6.5) v Broncos: Being a Jets fan, I hate hoping for the Patriots to do well, but the Jets v 49ers disaster last week told me to stop being stupid and play the numbers. The Patriots put up numbers whenever they want. Buffalo last week? 40+ and in the second half. It should be a battle of quarterbacks I’ll take Ugg-man.

Seahawks (+2.5) v Panthers: Well I’m already angry at this pick. I wanted the +3 (-130) line but something reset when I typed it in so I’m getting less than the game-deciding field goal. Overtime is a possibility in this game, I’ll look for a line on that and report back. I still think people are overvaluing Cam Newton from his ridiculousness last season. Also like the under 43 in this but OT wouldn’t help that cause.

Colts (+7) v Packers: The Cheeseheads aren’t off to such a good start. Typically the worst team in the previous season is good ATS the following season, the trend doesn’t seem to be following Luck & Co. (1-2 ATS) but it’s early.

Took these all for different amount individually with the Patriots for the most and Seahawks for the least but also parlayed the lot at 20-1. A man can dream, can’t he? Helps when the refs decide how your dreams end.

Good luck and feel free to the dollar below!

http://www.freesportsbet.com/freedollar

Update: I somehow scratched and clawed my way to a profit this week. Glad to get back on track, I’m staying away from the Texans(-9 or so)-Jets game tomorrow, looking forward to Thursday’s Steeler-Titans game. 

Week 3 picks – Orange & Grape juices

21 Sep

Be it the devil to set the Week 3 matchups this week. There are more home team underdogs and many with close spreads. As I researched, picking only the home team ‘dogs is 53% ATS which may be noteworthy but nothing to frighten me away. If history has anything to say about it, New England hadn’t lost a home opener in 9 years until the (+14) Cardinals gave them their first loss.

This week will mainly be about pricing, I’m seeing different spreads on different books, with different juices. Shop around if you can. As I infamously heard as I was winning Giants v. Bucs, ‘You live and die by the hook”.

All the games I picked are -115 which angered me in general but the lines were the best I could hope for (unless they move the way I wanted before kickoff). This also encouraged me to put the three teams in a parlay instead of taking each of them separately.

49er v. Vikings (-6.5): Live and die by the hook, I like the hook on the other side of 7 this time and think this game may be closer than most would imagine. Either way, 49ers are gold (good pun) this year and I see them controlling the regular season until the playoffs (similar to last years’ Packers).

Jets v. Dolphins (-1): Loved getting this line and will wait for the juice to come down a bit before putting more on this game separately. Dolphins are awful at home, this is prolly because no one really wants to live in Miami). Sparano is now OC for the Jets and was previously the Dolphins head coach. Seriously?! This is allowed? Why aren’t more non-competition agreements signed in the NFL. This should be too easy for the Jets to pick apart a weak Dolphin team. I see a blowout but I also want my 5% for the game by itself.

Ravens v. Patriots (-1.5): Trickiest game of most of them out there. Why take it then? Ravens should win by a field goal. They have a revamped offense, Patriots D isn’t good anymore, and if nothing changes from week 2 Patriots will get dominated [Ravens lost by 1 to the Eagles].

The parlay pays 5.1 to one unit because of the fruit medley (bad juice pun).

Enjoy the games!

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Half time and my jets and 49ers picks don’t look good at all. Got a chance but they’ll need to come out firing in the 3rd.

Darn hook on the Ravens game!