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Streaks? Round of 16 WWC bets!

19 Jun

Have you ever gone on a big losing streak but know it’s going to turn around soon? I’m not at a big losing streak…yet. I would consider a big streak about 6 or 7 bets in a row. I’ve lost the last 4 bets but I’m still above 23% ROI and floating at a .500 record. My picks will turn around for the round of 16 betting because all of my info has been updated. The group games helped recompute the data and strengthened a few teams, like Switzerland, and weakened a few teams, like France. Will the adjusted data I picked up 6 bets for the round of 16. Some are value bets and others are just plain winners.

Germany v Sweden (-243): Germany is the better team here. They have a 3.45 WGFLGA, the highest of all tournament teams, and Sweden has 1.63. I wanted to take Germany with a one goal spread (-1.0) but the price was too steep. I swapped in the moneyline and expect a 2-0 gewinner!
Australia (+0.5,0.5) v Brazil (+110) & Australia-Brazil O2.5 (-105): The Aussies have looked great so far in the tournament. Brazil, not so much. They barely pulled out a victory against Costa Rica, knocking out the Lady Champion Killers. I could see the Matildas squeaking out a 2-1 victory against Brazil. This should be a great game to watch.

Switzerland (+0.5,1.0) Canada (-120): I went double on this bet for a few reasons. First, Switzerland has played well in the tournament so far, there rankings are better than Canada (and we’re getting a spread!). Secondly, I have a future bet with Canada to win it all. If Canada has a poor showing and loses, I’ll re-coop some of that wasted future bet.
England-Norway O2.0 (-125) & Netherlands-Japan O2.0 (-140): For both of these over bets. I’m taking them at their value. England – Norway should be around a two goal game based on my data set but having the spread at 2 instead of 2.5 is worth betting. The same thinking goes for the Netherlands – Japan game. The data sets shows around a 2 but both teams don’t allow many goals. I thought about parlaying these bets but it’s more likely that one will win and the other will push.

These bets should end my losing, but I’m still a winner (at least that’s what my mom tells me, ha). Do you remember a big losing streak in your bets before? When you came through it did you keep winning? As if everything you bet became a winner? Let me know about those streaks, the winning streaks are fantastic but sometimes the losing streaks are just as funny.

Thursday’s Chargers/Chiefs

30 Oct

Awful, awful, just awful. I don’t know how I’m clinging on with these horrendous picks but I’ll keep throwing them out there and see what sticks. I’ll delve into the Sunday games later but here’s my pick (for what it’s worth) for the Thursday game.

I bet the UNDER (42.5) in Thursday’s Chargers/Chiefs game for free on FreeSportsBet.com.

Taking the under mainly because it’s a Thursday night game, the teams have little rest and I don’t see these offenses getting touchdowns over fieldgoals.

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via I bet the UNDER in Thursday’s Chargers/Chiefs game for free on FreeSportsBet.com.

Who let the underdogs out? Week 7

20 Oct

Running on a high from the Thursday night wins (Manningham didn’t play so that was cancelled) so I put in a few picks already but I like a ton of games this week.

Ravens Texans 7
Jets Patriots 10.5
Browns Colts ML
Cardinals Vikings 6.5
Bears Lions -6.5
Over Under 47.5

Ravens (+7) v Texans: Looks tough with a banged up Ravens D and no Ray Lewis but the Texans haven’t been blowing teams out recently and I like the Ray Rice to tear up the ground game for some reason. This game should be close for three quarters and then I expect someone to stumble and lose it early in the fourth. Turnovers will decide this game.

Jets (+10.5) Patriots: C’mon now? Seriously? This isn’t even nice, the Jets might be bad, and Belichek might want to run up the score on Rex Ryan, but the Patriots have close to no defense, if the Jets don’t score in the 1st quarter it might be over, but what is up with a double-digit spread in a divisional game. Yes, I’m a Jets fan, but if you take the Patriots here, you’re crazy. Did you forget about them losing to the birds (Cardinals and Seahawks)?

Browns over Colts: We know neither team is good but seeing what Shonne Green did against the Colts is making me side with them. Browns would be favored in this game if Trent Richardson was definite and healthy.

Cardinals (+6.5) Vikings: This dog pick could sting a bit similar to how the Vikings burned me against the Titans. Both teams coming off a loss I like the Cards covering in a good one.

Bears (-6.5) Lions: I see a crazy blowout no one expects. Cutler decides to show up, Marshall has a huge game on prime-time and Stafford might do well but I think he falls on his face trying to start up a comeback.

Over 47.5 on the Bears-Lions (Tigers…oh my!) game mainly cause its Monday night. Might double down on this if I’m up after Sunday.

I’m spread out all of these game but if you forced me to give you one pick I’d go with the Browns.

Good luck and may you cover.

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Update: Looks like I’m awful, not just awful but Lindsay Lohan at getting sober awful, at 1 pm EST games and over unders. I’ll keep this in mind for Week 7 but no promises. 

Broncos v Falcons (week 2)

17 Sep

Overall a good week 2. I took the Buc’s game and St. Louis (+3.5) [didn’t have time to post my other picks as my birthday needed some drinking] and parlayed them both as well. Lost when I got greedy and made a 2-team round-robin of Rams and Jets moneylines and Cowboys (-3.5). The wins were more than the losses so I’ve been looking at the Monday night game to increase my winnings.

I keep thinking that Atlanta at (-3) is easy and they’re a much better team, even with P. Manning on the Broncos. This unfortunately happens most years and everyone thinks M. Ryan is a better QB than when he’s actually on the field. I have an eery feeling taking the Broncos though since they’re going to Atlanta. I decided I’ll take the over (51) because Ryan showed a good no huddle in week 1 (albeit v the Chiefs) and Manning can do the same with his eyes closed. If the game stays close (within two scores) I would expect an outburst by both teams in the second half. Could be a nail bitter, I say Falcons take it 28-24 .

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Well that one stunk, I was right on about the halftime difference and should’ve taken the Falcons all along but when they scored again to start the 3rd quarter I didn’t see P. Manning coming back like his brother did v. the Bucs.