To Hedge, or Not to Hedge…

My record stands at 15-15-3 and a profitable 8% ROI. There is only one match left in the Women’s World Cup (betting on a third place game is like betting on an all-star game. Seriously?) and my future bet still stands! I placed my future bet months ago. I loaded up as much as I could, getting the USA to win the WWC at 3.5 to 1. When the WWC started the USA was bet down to 2.5 to 1 so I got pretty good value. My options now are to let it ride and watching to see if USA can prevail, winning me a sweet future bet, or hedging by betting Japan to beat the USA as underdogs mitigating my possible loss but also guaranteeing myself a profitable return.

Here’s the scenario in numbers:

If I let it ride and;

USA wins: 61% ROI, ~$390 profit

Japan wins: -9% ROI, ~$57 loss

If I hedge with Japan (aiming for 10% ROI) and;

USA wins: 44% ROI, ~$318 profit

Japan wins: 10% ROI, ~$71 profit

Neutral hedge (maximized guaranteed return);

USA or Japan wins 28% ROI, ~$226 profit

It’s a tough choice because I really enjoy money (don’t we all) and a guaranteed profit but I also want to root for the USA and win more while cheering them on. If you went to your stock broker and they said “Because you invested so well this month, you will net a 28% guaranteed return…but…if you want to risk it, you could make 70% more but you may incur a small loss.” What would you do? I’m still thinking about my decision but let me know what you would do by voting or leaving a comment below. I will update my spreadsheet Sunday morning with my decision.

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Women’s World Cup Betting – opening matches

There’s fun to be had with the Women’s World Cup. I’ve created a similar ranking system to Men’s World Cup (which netted me a nice ROI).

The link for my bets made during the World Cup (WC) is here. The reasoning for my bets is below.

USA (+350) and Canada (+1200) to win the World Cup: These are rather simpleton bets. USA is a homer bet and I actually like the odds. Canada getting 12-1 is ridiculous. They should win their group with relative ease and have one of the easier elimination schedules to get through. They’re also hosting the WC. I know, hosting teams don’t usually win (only men’s or women’s team to host and win was USA in 1999) but I think it gives them a partial home turf advantage.

Nigeria +1.0,+1.5 (+100) v Sweden: Let’s explain these Asian Odds first; by betting this type of line you get both lines in your wager. Your bet is split down the middle, so for my Jackson wager, one Hamilton gets the +1.0 line and another Hammy gets the +1.5 line. As for the match, Nigeria plays way below the level of their competition, but their Weighted Goals For (WGF) less Goals Against (GA) [WFFLGA] is only 0.3 less than Sweden. I like the line and if Sweden wins by 1 I’ll profit an extra Hammy.

China +1.0 (-110) v Canada: There are a few reason for this bet. I’m banking on a slow start for the home-opener. This happens in a bunch of WC’s. The host nation has the most pressure of any team and I could see Canada getting a draw even if they should win. If Canada loses, my future bet isn’t looking too good any more so it’s also a bit of a hedge. The odds on China winning (+515) were too good to pass up and because I like Spain over Costa Rica I parlayed them to increase the payout.

Switzerland-Japan Over (O) 2.5 (-135): Both of these teams give up one goal per game on average and score a lot (2.8 WGF). I like the possibility of a high scoring game here.

France (-147) v England: This should be one of the better games of the opening round. France is a half goal better by WFFLGA. France has the 4th highest WGF (behind Germany, Australia, and USA) of the tournament teams. England is 13th.

Columbia +0.5 v Mexico & Under (U) 2: The combined WFFLGA for these teams is 2.2, Columbia has a higher mark which led me to the spread bet. That’s rather low. Colombia allows less than half a goal per game so I’m taking the under.

Brazil (-225) v Korea: If anyone saw the Korea-USA game and didn’t get extremely angry that the USA couldn’t score against a team that only had possession 40% of the time you’ll understand. Brazil has finishers and will put shots away that the USA didn’t in that friendly. The only thing I felt gave Korea the 0-0 draw was their keeper. I don’t see her shutting out Brazil’s offense and Korea did not have a worthy attack that would be able to score against Brazil.

This will be the spreadsheet of my bets during the Women’s World Cup. I will update every time I make a bet. Feel free to follow in my footsteps as I’m sure this will be winning picks.

Mini Golf Bet-aganza!

I will cover a brief description of the rules and typical bets for ‘Mini Golf Bet-aganza!’

Any bet types / trades / transactions / props, that do not involve collusion, may be offered.

First hole starting order will be determined by Rock-Paper-Scissors tournament (most wins will pick putting position, and ties will have rematch, all RPS matches are best of 3).

First putt must be from hole on putting mat at each hole. If no putting mat is offered a decision will be made at said hole.

Any type of putt with the club end of putter is allowed. One may cross any ‘boundary’ necessary to make the hole.

If ball land out-of-bounds (OOB) one may choose to take a stroke and replace ball one club width from where the ball left the course or play on without taking any penalties.

Balls submersed in water (not on the edge of a puddle) do not have the option to play on.

One mulligan is allowed on the 18 first putts of a hole. Decision to take mulligan must be announced by saying “Mulligan” prior to the next playing putting their first shot.

Farthest from hole will play their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th shots first. No balls may be marked. You may strike opponents balls’ on purpose (see diagrams below).

Black circle is hole, blue is taking 2nd shot

One club width will be given before your shot if your ball is next to the wall or other immovable objects. (see diagram below)

Betting (may be changed):

$1 per hole per person.

If everyone ties, pot continues to next hole (3 straight tied holes, from all players, would result in $20 pot on fourth hole).

Less than everyone ties, those that tied will decide if they would like to split (boo!), or continue side-pot between them in next hole, or double down on next hole (yeah buddy!). Double-down would be if two peeps tie in hole #1, then hole #2 is would be the $5 pot from hole #1 plus the amount doubled-down for $1 (5+1+1=7). If hole #2 is tied and double option is taken again hole #3 is (5+1+1+2+2). Other methods are permitted. If the double option is not agreed by all tied players there will be a split payout of the pot. There are no restrictions, beside collusion, in ‘Bet-aganza!’

Low score for the course wins $20 ($5 from each player).

Hole in one = Bonus $1 from every player (normally would be $4 profit, increases to $8; $1 + 1 = $2 from each player).

If two players get hole in one on same hole, they will each win $1 from each player, and decide what to do with the halved hole.

Odds offered on course score for non-players are:

Alex +300

Steve +300

Matt +400

Jeff +400

Craig +400