Shake it like a salt shaka – Week 15

Going 5-1 last week was awesome if not just plain skeet. Hoping for a dog-filled weekend of fun. My picks below:

Jaguars	Dolphins	7.5
Colts	Texans	9.5
Steelers	Cowboys	-1.5
Buccaneers	Saints	3.5
Panthers	Chargers	+135

Jaguars +7.5 Dolphins: It hurt me to take this pick but the Dolphins are bad at home and the Jaguars are better when they play on the road, I like where the hook is, calling it Dolphins 23 Jaguars 17

Colts +9.5 Texans: A lot of people are on the Colts this game, I also couldn’t turn down 9.5 points against the team I saw play against the Pats Monday night. These teams are in the same division, but haven’t played each other yet. There next game together is week 17, nice job with that scheduling. Division games aren’t typically a 10-point blowout (ignore last week Seahawks-Cardinals game).

Steelers -1.5 Cowboys: Two reasons, Big Ben is back, and Cowboys will be distracted from thinking about there teammates passing the previous Saturday.

Buccaneers +3.5 Saints: The Bucs have lost 3 straight so I see Schiano pulling out a few knives to get the victory. (Side note: anybody else confused that Schiano wants kickoffs abolished because one of his Rutgers players was paralyzed during a return but he continues to rush the QB when down by 8 with the other team in victory formation?)

Panthers +135 Chargers: I don’t believe the Chargers actually won last week against the Steelers (note if Brown had kicked the ball out of the endzone for a safety, instead of a fumble recovered TD, the game could’ve been different). I think the Panthers are streaking and Cam Newton may have more sponsors than wins but his commercials are hilarious.

Good luck and may you cover!

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Week 12 picks, stuffed with leftovers

I’ve had more time than usually to look at this weeks lines and I hate all of them. I think it would be tough to do better than 60% picking most of the games this week. Since I see betting accounts as an investment and I would like it to increase every week, I’ll still make a few bets (some really dumb) and take some of the safer moneylines instead.

Bears (no line yet) Vikings – There hasn’t been a line made yet but it should be around -6. This could swing 5 points (Millman rankings) depending on whether Cutler starts or not. I’ll take this moneyline either way because I think the Bears are better than people are giving them credit for.

Ravens (-1) Chargers – Norv Turner is one of the longest lasting bad coaches in the league. If the Ravens play decent on offense, I see the Ravens taking over the game in the second half.

Jaguars (+4) Titans – Peeps are all over the Titans (opened at +3), but the Jaguars are a better team than anyone thinks. Close losses are just as good as a win over a bad team when looking at spreads. Unfortunately, the Jags have lost by double digits in most of their home games, which gives me cause to worry, but I don’t think Moore’s performance last week was a fluke. Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts are good receivers.

Enjoy the leftovers

Good luck and may you cover!

Thursday’s Chargers/Chiefs

Awful, awful, just awful. I don’t know how I’m clinging on with these horrendous picks but I’ll keep throwing them out there and see what sticks. I’ll delve into the Sunday games later but here’s my pick (for what it’s worth) for the Thursday game.

I bet the UNDER (42.5) in Thursday’s Chargers/Chiefs game for free on FreeSportsBet.com.

Taking the under mainly because it’s a Thursday night game, the teams have little rest and I don’t see these offenses getting touchdowns over fieldgoals.

Get $1.00 free to bet: http://www.freesportsbet.com/jetsinnyc.html

via I bet the UNDER in Thursday’s Chargers/Chiefs game for free on FreeSportsBet.com.

Beam me up some redemption!

This is all about redemption, I’m coming back with a vengeance. After a couple weeks of stagnant losses, I’m doubling my bet amounts and decreasing the amount of parlays I squander.

Jets -2.5 Dolphins : As ‘Beam me up’ Scotty said, “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” this line doesn’t make sense. For those that took the Dolphins in the last meeting were fooled by an overtime field goal. If you get fooled again on this one, it’s your own fault. The Jets had a decent loss against the Patriots, and although they are banged up, the Dolphins’ best shot at the pro-bowl is their punter. Jets won their last meeting 23-20 in overtime in Miami. They won’t need overtime to get this one done.

Chargers -3 Browns : Are we sure this is the right line? Chargers have a good run defense (70 ish ypg allowed) and the Browns have an injured Trent Richardson that couldn’t get it done against the Colts (I took the Browns last week) with one of the league’s worst d’s. Philip Rivers is coming off an ugly 6 turnover game v Denver but had a bye week to forget about it. Bye week teams are around 70% ATS this season (although I don’t like the other teams coming of byes this week as much).

As I said, I’m taking these teams hard. I suggest the parlay which will this free dollar into $3.50. I know, you’re welcome.

Good luck and may you cover.

Update: The Jets’ spread has dropped to -1.5 and I’m storming mad. There is no reason to not take it at that line as well, except for the thought that I could lose both. Yeah, sure that could happen. 

The Jaguars were listed at +15.5 and +850 moneyline v. the Packers a couple days ago, now the lines have dropped to +14.5 and +750 ML. I can’t see a 15 point spread being covered and the Packers are only 4-3, might see where this line is at Sunday morning.

Also thinking about the Saints moneyline v. the Broncos, have time to make that move, maybe I’ll see how bad my Jets pick is first.

Parlay my picks [Jets -1.5, Chargers -3, Jaguars +14.5, & Saints +6] Bet $1, which you get for free by clicking this, and it’ll turn into $11 when we hit.

San Diego @ Kansas City

It’s a pick!

http://www.freesportsbet.com/$1toTheWinnerHere

Raiders v. Chargers

These are some hardcore division rivals and with Peyton Manning now in Denver the division games are becoming even more important. All 4 teams in the AFC West were 3-3 in division games last year. The Raiders are at home, which is a huge advantage in division games like this.

I think Carson Palmer will have an unbelievable season this year. People will knock him at some point during the season but keep this in perspective. Do you remember the last good, let alone decent, QB from the Raiders?

Chargers are supposedly taking a simpler approach to the way they play defense. What’s simpler than not using substance that are illegal (Oh Merriman!)? I see their thought process, they have a good offense and need to find somewhere to improve. A change in the defense sounds about right. They don’t want to make anything too complicated, trying to keep the defense simpler because otherwise they would need to process decisions and thinking takes too much time. Is a simpler defense then faster if they don’t need to think? That’ll work until a few teams run the delayed draw (Oakland did this to the Jets last year) and get burned for 400 yards. I would just get smarter defense, that doesn’t use an abacus to do math.

I’m taking the Raaaaaaaaiiiiiiiiders (+1) in a close one!