Shake it like a salt shaka – Week 15

Going 5-1 last week was awesome if not just plain skeet. Hoping for a dog-filled weekend of fun. My picks below:

Jaguars	Dolphins	7.5
Colts	Texans	9.5
Steelers	Cowboys	-1.5
Buccaneers	Saints	3.5
Panthers	Chargers	+135

Jaguars +7.5 Dolphins: It hurt me to take this pick but the Dolphins are bad at home and the Jaguars are better when they play on the road, I like where the hook is, calling it Dolphins 23 Jaguars 17

Colts +9.5 Texans: A lot of people are on the Colts this game, I also couldn’t turn down 9.5 points against the team I saw play against the Pats Monday night. These teams are in the same division, but haven’t played each other yet. There next game together is week 17, nice job with that scheduling. Division games aren’t typically a 10-point blowout (ignore last week Seahawks-Cardinals game).

Steelers -1.5 Cowboys: Two reasons, Big Ben is back, and Cowboys will be distracted from thinking about there teammates passing the previous Saturday.

Buccaneers +3.5 Saints: The Bucs have lost 3 straight so I see Schiano pulling out a few knives to get the victory. (Side note: anybody else confused that Schiano wants kickoffs abolished because one of his Rutgers players was paralyzed during a return but he continues to rush the QB when down by 8 with the other team in victory formation?)

Panthers +135 Chargers: I don’t believe the Chargers actually won last week against the Steelers (note if Brown had kicked the ball out of the endzone for a safety, instead of a fumble recovered TD, the game could’ve been different). I think the Panthers are streaking and Cam Newton may have more sponsors than wins but his commercials are hilarious.

Good luck and may you cover!

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Throwing up a hail mary

Last week was disappointing not only to lose my picks but to watch the Jaguars under perform in person. It poured most of the game and I left with soaking wet shoes and less moola in my pocket. I don’t typically hold grudges but I’m taking my anger from last weeks game and turning on the Jags against my Jets this week. I haven’t liked any of the spread this week so I’ve decided to emulate my friends horse betting style which is to pick every horse except the favorite and put them in a convoluted wheel. Somehow this has worked for him, I hate the ponies, and prefer S’mores at a campfire.

Texans	Patriots	+3.5
Cowboys	Bengals	+3
Jets	Jaguars	-2.5
Titans	Colts	+5.5
Browns	Chiefs	-6.5
Panthers	Falcons	+3.5

I am picking a season-high six games and hope to hit atleast four (66.6%, devil-like no?)

Texans +3.5 Patriots: The Pats are not as good as people think they are. They play in a crappy division and have lost to legit bad teams. I heard that Brady hasn’t lost at home in December, does this really make any sense? Odds are most of those games were against the Bills, Jets, or Dolphins and the Pats lost to the Cardinals at home in Week 2. Unfortunately, I don’t think people will get off their knees for Brady anytime soon but I see him throwing a couple interceptions and going to the sideline to put his Uggs on after JJ Watt sacks him for the game in the fourth.

Cowboys +3 Bengals: This game worries me but if Romo shows up, with help from a returning Demarco Murray, they could win this game, albeit in Cincinnati. The Cowboys are surprisingly only a game behind the Gmen for the division lead. I think they need this game more and show up Sunday.

Jets -2.5 Jaguars: Fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck the Jags. Cecil Shorts, whom I raved about last week, is out with  a concussion (even though he passed concussion tests). I’m a Jets fan (yes, it’s sad) and want McElroy to start but Sanchez should play alright after an awful week. They need to win out against under .500 teams to have a chance at the playoff (why am I hoping for this?)

Titans +5.5 Colts: This game will be closer than people think. I don’t usually take a team getting points if I don’t think they can win the game but Chris Johnson is due for a big game (he’s been due since his signed that contract) and the Colts have an anemic run defense. <Insert Andrew Luck type pun> the Colts may also over look the Titans to next weeks game at Houston.

Browns -6.5 Chiefs: Could be a low scoring game which is a problem for a touchdown type cover but I see the Browns winning by 8 enroute to a Bad-team-that’s-no-so-bad title. Too soon to make bad jokes here so I’ll just include a video made by God on why he hates Cleveland.

Panthers +3.5 Falcons: The Panthers find ways to lose close games and the Falcons find ways to win close games. I can see the Falcons winning by a point or not bringing their all for a division game when they’ve already locked up the division. The Falcons may have a decent lead at half but the sleepy Panthers will get annoyed and decide to actually win a game this year.

Good luck and may you cover!

Update: I hit oil! 5 for 5 so far and hedged the Texans bet to lock in an all-time high in winnings for the week. 

Turkey Day

Da Bears didn’t do much of anything Monday night. That loss didn’t feel too good. I don’t like the spreads for the Turkey Day games for a few reasons.

Patriots -6.5 Jets: Sure I would take the Pats in this but the Jets showed up against the Rams and it is a division game.

Texans -3 Lions: This doesn’t make sense. Sure, the Lions are home and they typically play on Turkey Day but if I set this line it would be near the 6 or 7 range. Maybe the Texans going into OT v the Jaguars is dissuading bettors.

Redskins +3 Cowboys: The Cowboys are such a ‘Johnny come lately’ team. They show up one week then take a couple weeks off. I won taking the Browns and this is also a divisional game in Dallas (Cowboys don’t do well there*).

All in all I don’t like any of these spreads and will only take them if I get really bored and need something to gamble on after my hangover and before the Turkey on Thursday.

* Cowboys are 2-2 at home this season but 28-15-1 on Thanksgiving games

Good luck and may you cover!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Planning for Vegas

So after a few hour seminar I was awarded a choice of airfare and two night stay at either Las Vegas or Orlando, not that I know of anything in Orlando but it looks like I’ll be taking a trip to Vegas sometime this year. I’ll remember to pack a toothbrush and bring my awful picks with me. Here’s the lot of them, I’m thinking this is my weekend to hit, I already had a few bad weeks and I’m carrying mojo from the last couple weeks.

Browns	Cowboys	7.5
Jaguars	Texans	15.5
Buccaneers	Panthers	-1.5

Browns +7.5 v Cowboys: Browns are a decent team as they showed last week v the G-men. The Cowboys are extremely inconsistent and aren’t playing well at home. I see the Browns challenge for the win in a low scoring game.

Jaguars +15.5 v Texans: If you considered taking Texans -15.5, or -16 earlier this week, I would like to meet you. I have not met anyone willing to lay more than 14 points in any NFL games. This is any NFL game and the Jags will prolly play better away from their empty home stadium.

Buccaneers -1.5 v Panthers: This is becoming bet heavy by the public as the Bucs are 7-2 ATS and the Cam Newton polish isn’t ‘new’ to bettors anymore. I like the Bucs to win this by a touchdown and one of the Carolina cheerleaders to slap Newton when he can’t complete a game-winning drive.

Good luck and may you cover!

Update: 3-0! Lovin’ it! With these teams individually and a small parlay tying them together I’m back on the plus side for the season. I will most likely take Chicago tomorrow night in a upset featuring back-up QB’s for teams that I think will make it to the Superbowl.

Cowboys vs. Giants 9/5/12

I’m taking the Cowboys (+3, +110), the Giants are at home after their improbable Superbowl run but have lost a bunch of key players (Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham to the 49ers). My guess is the NY side of the line has been slammed from carryover followers of the Giants Superbowl win. The problem is they are a different team now. They were only an 8-8 team last year so Coughlin may need to re-strengthen the team, it may not take long but I don’t see them being ready for the first game. Cowboys are having their own problems (Dez Bryant in legal trouble) and are lacking a strong offense. Over/Under is 46.5 with juice on the over. It’s a divisional game, that means it’ll be strong defense and low scoring or a complete shootout like some of their previous meetings. I’m leaning toward the under and update this when I make my pick.

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