Shake it like a salt shaka – Week 15

Going 5-1 last week was awesome if not just plain skeet. Hoping for a dog-filled weekend of fun. My picks below:

Jaguars	Dolphins	7.5
Colts	Texans	9.5
Steelers	Cowboys	-1.5
Buccaneers	Saints	3.5
Panthers	Chargers	+135

Jaguars +7.5 Dolphins: It hurt me to take this pick but the Dolphins are bad at home and the Jaguars are better when they play on the road, I like where the hook is, calling it Dolphins 23 Jaguars 17

Colts +9.5 Texans: A lot of people are on the Colts this game, I also couldn’t turn down 9.5 points against the team I saw play against the Pats Monday night. These teams are in the same division, but haven’t played each other yet. There next game together is week 17, nice job with that scheduling. Division games aren’t typically a 10-point blowout (ignore last week Seahawks-Cardinals game).

Steelers -1.5 Cowboys: Two reasons, Big Ben is back, and Cowboys will be distracted from thinking about there teammates passing the previous Saturday.

Buccaneers +3.5 Saints: The Bucs have lost 3 straight so I see Schiano pulling out a few knives to get the victory. (Side note: anybody else confused that Schiano wants kickoffs abolished because one of his Rutgers players was paralyzed during a return but he continues to rush the QB when down by 8 with the other team in victory formation?)

Panthers +135 Chargers: I don’t believe the Chargers actually won last week against the Steelers (note if Brown had kicked the ball out of the endzone for a safety, instead of a fumble recovered TD, the game could’ve been different). I think the Panthers are streaking and Cam Newton may have more sponsors than wins but his commercials are hilarious.

Good luck and may you cover!

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Beam me up some redemption!

This is all about redemption, I’m coming back with a vengeance. After a couple weeks of stagnant losses, I’m doubling my bet amounts and decreasing the amount of parlays I squander.

Jets -2.5 Dolphins : As ‘Beam me up’ Scotty said, “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” this line doesn’t make sense. For those that took the Dolphins in the last meeting were fooled by an overtime field goal. If you get fooled again on this one, it’s your own fault. The Jets had a decent loss against the Patriots, and although they are banged up, the Dolphins’ best shot at the pro-bowl is their punter. Jets won their last meeting 23-20 in overtime in Miami. They won’t need overtime to get this one done.

Chargers -3 Browns : Are we sure this is the right line? Chargers have a good run defense (70 ish ypg allowed) and the Browns have an injured Trent Richardson that couldn’t get it done against the Colts (I took the Browns last week) with one of the league’s worst d’s. Philip Rivers is coming off an ugly 6 turnover game v Denver but had a bye week to forget about it. Bye week teams are around 70% ATS this season (although I don’t like the other teams coming of byes this week as much).

As I said, I’m taking these teams hard. I suggest the parlay which will this free dollar into $3.50. I know, you’re welcome.

Good luck and may you cover.

Update: The Jets’ spread has dropped to -1.5 and I’m storming mad. There is no reason to not take it at that line as well, except for the thought that I could lose both. Yeah, sure that could happen. 

The Jaguars were listed at +15.5 and +850 moneyline v. the Packers a couple days ago, now the lines have dropped to +14.5 and +750 ML. I can’t see a 15 point spread being covered and the Packers are only 4-3, might see where this line is at Sunday morning.

Also thinking about the Saints moneyline v. the Broncos, have time to make that move, maybe I’ll see how bad my Jets pick is first.

Parlay my picks [Jets -1.5, Chargers -3, Jaguars +14.5, & Saints +6] Bet $1, which you get for free by clicking this, and it’ll turn into $11 when we hit.

J-E-T-S! & other Week 4 p-i-c-k-s

If I wasn’t a Jets fan this pick would be much easier. I unfortunately suffer through their games like the rest of NY (Giants fans can relate, but they have two much more recent Superbowls) I heard the statistic last week and it makes logical sense. A west coast team has never won on the east coast in a 1 o’clock game. 1 pm EST = 10am PT. That’s not very friendly to the 49ers even though they are most likely a better team. I took Jets moneyline (+175*) and will parlay them (+4) with some other picks later this weekend.

I’m running a great 3-0 in games involving the Giants ATS so I’ll push my luck and see if the streak continues. Philly is 2-1 in close wins and a blowout loss to the unappreciated Cardinals. Andy Reid hates losing, as much as I hated the hook on last week Ravens game, and rarely falters after a loss. I’ll take the Eagles (-1.5) because they’re home.

Of my next three picks, I’ll decide how hard I take them later but I like ’em and I like ’em good:

Bills (+4.5) v Patriots – someone needs to punch Tom Brady in the face, I hope it’s Mario Williams, divisional games should not have this kind of spread in away games. Peeps need to stop betting the Patriots.

Cardinals (-6) v Dolphins – I would like this to come down a bit but the Cardinals have shown they’re legit this season and the Dolphins suffered in the Jets game last week when Reggie Bush (didn’t practice Wed.) went out.

Buccaneers (-2.5) v Redskins – Bucs are doing well ATS this year, meaning they’ve been underrated thus far, the Redskins have been hyped due to RG3 . Defense decides this game, I’ll think about the under (48).

Good luck!

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This does not look good. Jets and Bills got blown out. I got all of my other picks wrong so far. I’ll be saved if the Cardinals pull of a 13-0 halftime deficit, the Bucs can pull off a current 14-3 deficit, and the Eagles beat the Giants. SON OF A GUN! Bad week.

Week 3 picks – Orange & Grape juices

Be it the devil to set the Week 3 matchups this week. There are more home team underdogs and many with close spreads. As I researched, picking only the home team ‘dogs is 53% ATS which may be noteworthy but nothing to frighten me away. If history has anything to say about it, New England hadn’t lost a home opener in 9 years until the (+14) Cardinals gave them their first loss.

This week will mainly be about pricing, I’m seeing different spreads on different books, with different juices. Shop around if you can. As I infamously heard as I was winning Giants v. Bucs, ‘You live and die by the hook”.

All the games I picked are -115 which angered me in general but the lines were the best I could hope for (unless they move the way I wanted before kickoff). This also encouraged me to put the three teams in a parlay instead of taking each of them separately.

49er v. Vikings (-6.5): Live and die by the hook, I like the hook on the other side of 7 this time and think this game may be closer than most would imagine. Either way, 49ers are gold (good pun) this year and I see them controlling the regular season until the playoffs (similar to last years’ Packers).

Jets v. Dolphins (-1): Loved getting this line and will wait for the juice to come down a bit before putting more on this game separately. Dolphins are awful at home, this is prolly because no one really wants to live in Miami). Sparano is now OC for the Jets and was previously the Dolphins head coach. Seriously?! This is allowed? Why aren’t more non-competition agreements signed in the NFL. This should be too easy for the Jets to pick apart a weak Dolphin team. I see a blowout but I also want my 5% for the game by itself.

Ravens v. Patriots (-1.5): Trickiest game of most of them out there. Why take it then? Ravens should win by a field goal. They have a revamped offense, Patriots D isn’t good anymore, and if nothing changes from week 2 Patriots will get dominated [Ravens lost by 1 to the Eagles].

The parlay pays 5.1 to one unit because of the fruit medley (bad juice pun).

Enjoy the games!

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Half time and my jets and 49ers picks don’t look good at all. Got a chance but they’ll need to come out firing in the 3rd.

Darn hook on the Ravens game!