Throwing up a hail mary

Last week was disappointing not only to lose my picks but to watch the Jaguars under perform in person. It poured most of the game and I left with soaking wet shoes and less moola in my pocket. I don’t typically hold grudges but I’m taking my anger from last weeks game and turning on the Jags against my Jets this week. I haven’t liked any of the spread this week so I’ve decided to emulate my friends horse betting style which is to pick every horse except the favorite and put them in a convoluted wheel. Somehow this has worked for him, I hate the ponies, and prefer S’mores at a campfire.

Texans	Patriots	+3.5
Cowboys	Bengals	+3
Jets	Jaguars	-2.5
Titans	Colts	+5.5
Browns	Chiefs	-6.5
Panthers	Falcons	+3.5

I am picking a season-high six games and hope to hit atleast four (66.6%, devil-like no?)

Texans +3.5 Patriots: The Pats are not as good as people think they are. They play in a crappy division and have lost to legit bad teams. I heard that Brady hasn’t lost at home in December, does this really make any sense? Odds are most of those games were against the Bills, Jets, or Dolphins and the Pats lost to the Cardinals at home in Week 2. Unfortunately, I don’t think people will get off their knees for Brady anytime soon but I see him throwing a couple interceptions and going to the sideline to put his Uggs on after JJ Watt sacks him for the game in the fourth.

Cowboys +3 Bengals: This game worries me but if Romo shows up, with help from a returning Demarco Murray, they could win this game, albeit in Cincinnati. The Cowboys are surprisingly only a game behind the Gmen for the division lead. I think they need this game more and show up Sunday.

Jets -2.5 Jaguars: Fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck the Jags. Cecil Shorts, whom I raved about last week, is out with  a concussion (even though he passed concussion tests). I’m a Jets fan (yes, it’s sad) and want McElroy to start but Sanchez should play alright after an awful week. They need to win out against under .500 teams to have a chance at the playoff (why am I hoping for this?)

Titans +5.5 Colts: This game will be closer than people think. I don’t usually take a team getting points if I don’t think they can win the game but Chris Johnson is due for a big game (he’s been due since his signed that contract) and the Colts have an anemic run defense. <Insert Andrew Luck type pun> the Colts may also over look the Titans to next weeks game at Houston.

Browns -6.5 Chiefs: Could be a low scoring game which is a problem for a touchdown type cover but I see the Browns winning by 8 enroute to a Bad-team-that’s-no-so-bad title. Too soon to make bad jokes here so I’ll just include a video made by God on why he hates Cleveland.

Panthers +3.5 Falcons: The Panthers find ways to lose close games and the Falcons find ways to win close games. I can see the Falcons winning by a point or not bringing their all for a division game when they’ve already locked up the division. The Falcons may have a decent lead at half but the sleepy Panthers will get annoyed and decide to actually win a game this year.

Good luck and may you cover!

Update: I hit oil! 5 for 5 so far and hedged the Texans bet to lock in an all-time high in winnings for the week. 

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Nothing like last week, Week 10 picks

I didn’t post anything last week, mainly due to laziness, but it seems as though it didn’t matter. The books took a beating in Week 9 as many of the public favorites won. I think Vegas got angry from their losses. This weeks lines are harder than a 9th grader that has Anna Kournikova as a gym teacher. There are only a couple of lines I like. I probably won’t make any parlays, maybe a couple of 6-point teasers.

Texans +1 Bears: This good of a team getting points is crazy. Chicago has a good defense, almost too good of a defense. They’ve scored 8 TD’s on defense and special teams. This happened last week and created a higher score than they would deserve. I’ve always said, spreads do not take turnovers into account. Public is riding too much on Chicago’s last week blowout and I see the Texans taking this, albeit a close one.

Falcons -2.5 Saints: Every smart pick-maker is going with the Saints, which of course worries me, but also makes me think I’m right (and I hate being right). Falcons are UNDEFEATED and are laying less than a field goal against a mediocre Saints team.

Jets +6.5 Seahawks: I didn’t like this line at first but I think this line is inflated, Seahawks do not have the offense to cover this many point, even at home. I am a Jets fan (although I’m debating why this season) so I’m putting this in my teasers so the line will be +12.5 for those picks.

Good luck and may you cover

Broncos v Falcons (week 2)

Overall a good week 2. I took the Buc’s game and St. Louis (+3.5) [didn’t have time to post my other picks as my birthday needed some drinking] and parlayed them both as well. Lost when I got greedy and made a 2-team round-robin of Rams and Jets moneylines and Cowboys (-3.5). The wins were more than the losses so I’ve been looking at the Monday night game to increase my winnings.

I keep thinking that Atlanta at (-3) is easy and they’re a much better team, even with P. Manning on the Broncos. This unfortunately happens most years and everyone thinks M. Ryan is a better QB than when he’s actually on the field. I have an eery feeling taking the Broncos though since they’re going to Atlanta. I decided I’ll take the over (51) because Ryan showed a good no huddle in week 1 (albeit v the Chiefs) and Manning can do the same with his eyes closed. If the game stays close (within two scores) I would expect an outburst by both teams in the second half. Could be a nail bitter, I say Falcons take it 28-24 .

http://www.freesportsbet.com/freebet

Well that one stunk, I was right on about the halftime difference and should’ve taken the Falcons all along but when they scored again to start the 3rd quarter I didn’t see P. Manning coming back like his brother did v. the Bucs.

Falcons v. Chiefs

I’m taking the Falcons moneyline (-130) as I saw the line move from -1 to -2 and don’t want to be burned with a one-point win.

With the depth in receiving that the Falcons have, Matt Ryan needs to step up and get his team a playoff win. Mike Smith, Falcons head coach, is 0-3 in the playoffs, most recently they were stomped by the Giants 24-2.

As ugly as that score was, I don’t see the Chiefs recovering from last season. Sure they’ve made improvements in their run game but the Falcons have a good run defense. The Chiefs will do alright in the middle of the season, maybe towards the end but I don’t see them as a consistent enough team, that’s good enough to beat the Falcons (yes, I know the Falcons are inconsistent too).

Ryan should be able to put this game away at the end of the third quarter and then the Falcons will most likely rely on their defense to close out the fourth quarter to win it.