Tag Archives: football

Playoff props galore!

11 Jan

1-3 last week. Shucks. And this week of the playoffs looks difficult. Peeps are going hard on both sides of most every game and only having 4 available makes it tough. Fortunately with fewer games the more ridiculous the prop bets get. My picks and props below:

Ravens +16 Broncos & Texans +15.5 Patriots (6 point teaser) – Sure it looks easy but who knows. Winning both of these pay the same as a regular pick with the regular spread. Playoff games shouldn’t be blowouts and both the Ravens and Texans have a chance to win outright.

Ravens – Broncos U46 – P. Manning isn’t phenomenal playing outdoors late in the season. This will be his biggest test of the season. The high for the day is a whopping 19 degrees. Gonna be cold, suit up and get ready for a field goal contest.

Ravens – Broncos Longest TD yardage U44.5 – I don’t see Manning bombing passes with it being so cold out, nor do I see Ray Rice busting a draw play for 45 yards.

49ers-Packers 1st quarter U9: I saw this prop and thought ‘Wow, it’ll go way over 9’ Then looking at the research, both teams have really low scoring 1st quarters.

As for picking the games straight up I like the Broncos, Packers, Atlanta, & Texans.

Good luck and may you cover!

Prop bets found here!

Update: Ugh, this week is not looking good.

Meaning-less/ful week 17 picks

28 Dec

Going 2-4 last week was not what I planned. Glad I picked up the Vikings moneyline though. Week 17 is usually a tough week for picks, as some teams need to win (and fall on their face), and some teams don’t care (but play out of their minds). My picks below:

Colts +6.5 Texans – Pagano is back leading to a pumped up Colts team and stadium. The Texans have never won in Indy and I don’t see them beating cancer like Chuck did. Calling it Colts 23 – Texans 20 [game is ‘marked’ by most books so their not offering a moneyline yet]

Lions +3 Bears – The next two picks I’m taking because of what’s at stake; Calvin Johnson needs 108 yards to reach 2,000 receiving yards for the season. They give him all the passes he can handle to reach that mark. The Bears are not a legit team and I see failure in Detriot on Sunday.

Vikings +3.5 Packers – I mentioned AP being the reason the Vikings would win last week. He wasn’t the reason for them winning but they still took out the Texans. The Vikings are playing to make the playoffs and I think AP’s teammates will play harder trying to get him 207 yards.

Well I’m riding the ‘dogs this week, hope they come through.

Good luck and may you cover!

Picks fitting for the end of the world

21 Dec

bozeekpicks

Not a great week last week. Fortunately, I doubled down on the Panthers after seeing how bad my 1pm EST games were looking. The world is supposed to end today, although I wasn’t given any warning of the skies falling from Australia yet, so I got my picks in already. Waiting on some of these lines could be helpful if you want the hook moved or better juice.

Seahawks 49ers pick
Cowboys Saints -3.0
Giants Ravens -2.5
Browns Broncos 13.5
Buccaneers Rams -3.0
Vikings Texans 7.5

These games are listed in order of how much I like them.

Seahawks pick 49ers – The public my push this line to +1 because they saw the Niners do well against the Patriots, making a statement to be ranked the best team in the league. My issue, and I took the 49ers to win the Superbowl before week 1, is that they can’t win the Superbowl with Kapernick. This is the same reason I’m taking the Seahawks. Russell Wilson has nerves of steel (see the call). Yes, it was the wrong call but that’s still a great throw as a rookie.

Cowboys -3 (+105) Saints – I got burned with the Cowboys last week, I thought they’d be distracted with off-the-field incidences but they took the game into OT and won it. After seeing   the last two weeks, I think the ‘boys are on a roll and take it to the Saints pulling it off pre-OT this time. Calling it 24-20.

Giants -2.5 Ravens – Love the hook on this game. The Ravens are sliding and Gmen are coming back from a blowout in Atlanta. Coughlin may kill his players if they lose this game. I like them on the road to cover the points.

Browns +13.5 Broncos – I don’t see the Broncos running up the score in this one. The Browns could be this years’ best-worst team. A crappy record but decent defense doesn’t allow teams to cover by two touchdowns.

Buccaneers -3 Rams – Yes, yes, yes I keep taking the Bucs and keep losing with them. Something’s gotta change, right?

Vikings +7.5 Texans – AP, AP, AP, AP, AP, AP, AP, is going for the rushing record and should be able to conquer a good Texans run defense. Even if the Texans expect the run and stack the box, Christian may ponder (ha!) throwing the ball against a bad pass defense. I like this as a upset but won’t put much on it. Calling it Vikings 21-20.

Good luck and may you cover!

Shake it like a salt shaka – Week 15

15 Dec

Going 5-1 last week was awesome if not just plain skeet. Hoping for a dog-filled weekend of fun. My picks below:

Jaguars Dolphins 7.5
Colts Texans 9.5
Steelers Cowboys -1.5
Buccaneers Saints 3.5
Panthers Chargers +135

Jaguars +7.5 Dolphins: It hurt me to take this pick but the Dolphins are bad at home and the Jaguars are better when they play on the road, I like where the hook is, calling it Dolphins 23 Jaguars 17

Colts +9.5 Texans: A lot of people are on the Colts this game, I also couldn’t turn down 9.5 points against the team I saw play against the Pats Monday night. These teams are in the same division, but haven’t played each other yet. There next game together is week 17, nice job with that scheduling. Division games aren’t typically a 10-point blowout (ignore last week Seahawks-Cardinals game).

Steelers -1.5 Cowboys: Two reasons, Big Ben is back, and Cowboys will be distracted from thinking about there teammates passing the previous Saturday.

Buccaneers +3.5 Saints: The Bucs have lost 3 straight so I see Schiano pulling out a few knives to get the victory. (Side note: anybody else confused that Schiano wants kickoffs abolished because one of his Rutgers players was paralyzed during a return but he continues to rush the QB when down by 8 with the other team in victory formation?)

Panthers +135 Chargers: I don’t believe the Chargers actually won last week against the Steelers (note if Brown had kicked the ball out of the endzone for a safety, instead of a fumble recovered TD, the game could’ve been different). I think the Panthers are streaking and Cam Newton may have more sponsors than wins but his commercials are hilarious.

Good luck and may you cover!

Nothing like last week, Week 10 picks

10 Nov

I didn’t post anything last week, mainly due to laziness, but it seems as though it didn’t matter. The books took a beating in Week 9 as many of the public favorites won. I think Vegas got angry from their losses. This weeks lines are harder than a 9th grader that has Anna Kournikova as a gym teacher. There are only a couple of lines I like. I probably won’t make any parlays, maybe a couple of 6-point teasers.

Texans +1 Bears: This good of a team getting points is crazy. Chicago has a good defense, almost too good of a defense. They’ve scored 8 TD’s on defense and special teams. This happened last week and created a higher score than they would deserve. I’ve always said, spreads do not take turnovers into account. Public is riding too much on Chicago’s last week blowout and I see the Texans taking this, albeit a close one.

Falcons -2.5 Saints: Every smart pick-maker is going with the Saints, which of course worries me, but also makes me think I’m right (and I hate being right). Falcons are UNDEFEATED and are laying less than a field goal against a mediocre Saints team.

Jets +6.5 Seahawks: I didn’t like this line at first but I think this line is inflated, Seahawks do not have the offense to cover this many point, even at home. I am a Jets fan (although I’m debating why this season) so I’m putting this in my teasers so the line will be +12.5 for those picks.

Good luck and may you cover

Beam me up some redemption!

26 Oct

This is all about redemption, I’m coming back with a vengeance. After a couple weeks of stagnant losses, I’m doubling my bet amounts and decreasing the amount of parlays I squander.

Jets -2.5 Dolphins : As ‘Beam me up’ Scotty said, “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” this line doesn’t make sense. For those that took the Dolphins in the last meeting were fooled by an overtime field goal. If you get fooled again on this one, it’s your own fault. The Jets had a decent loss against the Patriots, and although they are banged up, the Dolphins’ best shot at the pro-bowl is their punter. Jets won their last meeting 23-20 in overtime in Miami. They won’t need overtime to get this one done.

Chargers -3 Browns : Are we sure this is the right line? Chargers have a good run defense (70 ish ypg allowed) and the Browns have an injured Trent Richardson that couldn’t get it done against the Colts (I took the Browns last week) with one of the league’s worst d’s. Philip Rivers is coming off an ugly 6 turnover game v Denver but had a bye week to forget about it. Bye week teams are around 70% ATS this season (although I don’t like the other teams coming of byes this week as much).

As I said, I’m taking these teams hard. I suggest the parlay which will this free dollar into $3.50. I know, you’re welcome.

Good luck and may you cover.

Update: The Jets’ spread has dropped to -1.5 and I’m storming mad. There is no reason to not take it at that line as well, except for the thought that I could lose both. Yeah, sure that could happen. 

The Jaguars were listed at +15.5 and +850 moneyline v. the Packers a couple days ago, now the lines have dropped to +14.5 and +750 ML. I can’t see a 15 point spread being covered and the Packers are only 4-3, might see where this line is at Sunday morning.

Also thinking about the Saints moneyline v. the Broncos, have time to make that move, maybe I’ll see how bad my Jets pick is first.

Parlay my picks [Jets -1.5, Chargers -3, Jaguars +14.5, & Saints +6] Bet $1, which you get for free by clicking this, and it’ll turn into $11 when we hit.

Buccaneers @ Vikings [POLL]

23 Oct

In the spirit of Presidential debates and polling, I’d like some opinions.

For those of you that don’t understand spreads, I’ll put it in lay man’s terms:

If I were to give the Buccaneers 6.5 points when they play at the Vikings who would win? (example below)

If the ending score of the game is Buccaneers 20 – Vikings 26 and you picked the Buccaneers +6.5, you would win. Congrats, if that’s how it ends up. More excitingly, you can do this here and you can win money. It truly sounds too good to be true but I’ve cashed out $100 from the site and am using it for this season (and if you’ve been following, eh, could be better).

If anyone is courageous enough to take my pick (I’ve done awful with these two teams this season), I’m leaning towards the Buccaneers. Thursday night games have been rather low scoring and lacking offense, a 6.5 point spread is a bit much against the decent defense that the Bucs have.

R-E-S-P-E-C-T spells Seattle

18 Oct

I guess this team can’t get the respect it deserves. A stingy defense, and lackluster offense that may take a full 3 quarters to develop but it gets there.  Last week it took until the last minutes of the game for them to cover against the Patriots. It saved me a ton as I was 2-3 and of course didn’t put enough on Seattle (one can never be a happy sports better). I’ve been all over the Seahawks again this week.

Alex Smith threw three interceptions last week and I think he’s due for at least one this week (-180). I thought about that one but I only took Manningham under 47.5 yards (-115) and Crabtree no TD reception (-180). Manningham could be battling a minor shoulder injury and don’t think the 49ers will want to throw against the Seattle secondary when they have apt running backs.

Seahawks (+9) at 49ers

I’d take this anywhere north of 7. I think the Seahawks have a chance to win this so I may round robin the moneyline with a couple other underdogs. This week looks easy but that’s not fair, she could just a prude dressed up for Halloween.

Good luck and may you cover

http://www.freesportsbet.com/NotABirdNotAPlaneIt’sAFreeDollar

Week 5 picks

7 Oct

Didn’t get to do enough research Friday and had to study during the day Saturday so these may be late but here they are.

Browns Giants 8.5
Titans Vikings 5.5
Patriots Broncos -6.5
Seahawks Panthers 2.5 (-105)
Colts Packers 7

Browns (+8.5) v Giants: I’m forcing myself to pick this game because I haven’t lost in a game involving the Giants this year, took Philly at -1.5 last week. I could see this game coming down to Giants trying to get up by two scores to put the game away. That wouldn’t be nice but I also noticed the O/U is 44. I can’t see the Giants winning by more than 10 with a total so low. Could happen, but I say Browns (+8.5).

Titans (+5.5) v Vikings: When was the last time someone said the Vikings were overrated, prolly when they had old man Fav-re. There’s something about Ma-tt Hasslebeck that makes me think the Titans could win this. I’ll think about the moneyline (+210) tomorrow morning. For those that found the joke in there, congrats.

Patriots (-6.5) v Broncos: Being a Jets fan, I hate hoping for the Patriots to do well, but the Jets v 49ers disaster last week told me to stop being stupid and play the numbers. The Patriots put up numbers whenever they want. Buffalo last week? 40+ and in the second half. It should be a battle of quarterbacks I’ll take Ugg-man.

Seahawks (+2.5) v Panthers: Well I’m already angry at this pick. I wanted the +3 (-130) line but something reset when I typed it in so I’m getting less than the game-deciding field goal. Overtime is a possibility in this game, I’ll look for a line on that and report back. I still think people are overvaluing Cam Newton from his ridiculousness last season. Also like the under 43 in this but OT wouldn’t help that cause.

Colts (+7) v Packers: The Cheeseheads aren’t off to such a good start. Typically the worst team in the previous season is good ATS the following season, the trend doesn’t seem to be following Luck & Co. (1-2 ATS) but it’s early.

Took these all for different amount individually with the Patriots for the most and Seahawks for the least but also parlayed the lot at 20-1. A man can dream, can’t he? Helps when the refs decide how your dreams end.

Good luck and feel free to the dollar below!

http://www.freesportsbet.com/freedollar

Update: I somehow scratched and clawed my way to a profit this week. Glad to get back on track, I’m staying away from the Texans(-9 or so)-Jets game tomorrow, looking forward to Thursday’s Steeler-Titans game. 

Cardinals v Rams 10/4

4 Oct

Interesting thought on this game…I like Cardinals (-1.5) for the game but I’ve been doing poorly over the past few weeks so I decided to do some more research and try to make a successful prop bet. Got lucky, I stumbled on the 1st half line of Cardinals (-0.5), I thought ‘surely they could cover this’ but with the extra research I noted that beside the Philly game (I’ll deem a fluke because of so many 1st half turnovers) the Cardinals have scored 6, 10, and 0 points in the first halves of their games. The Rams on the other hand have scored at a good clip in the first halves of their games but have not been able to win as many as the Cardinals.

I’m gonna take Rams (+0.5, -115) for the first half and hope this research thing works this week.

Back with more picks Saturday morning!

http://www.freesportsbet.com/It’sAFreeDollar!

Got it right! Maybe the research thing will work out this week. Seems to be a tough week for Straight-up pools (and by that I mean most everyone is going with the same picks. This makes one wrong pick a killer).