Throwing up a hail mary

Last week was disappointing not only to lose my picks but to watch the Jaguars under perform in person. It poured most of the game and I left with soaking wet shoes and less moola in my pocket. I don’t typically hold grudges but I’m taking my anger from last weeks game and turning on the Jags against my Jets this week. I haven’t liked any of the spread this week so I’ve decided to emulate my friends horse betting style which is to pick every horse except the favorite and put them in a convoluted wheel. Somehow this has worked for him, I hate the ponies, and prefer S’mores at a campfire.

Texans	Patriots	+3.5
Cowboys	Bengals	+3
Jets	Jaguars	-2.5
Titans	Colts	+5.5
Browns	Chiefs	-6.5
Panthers	Falcons	+3.5

I am picking a season-high six games and hope to hit atleast four (66.6%, devil-like no?)

Texans +3.5 Patriots: The Pats are not as good as people think they are. They play in a crappy division and have lost to legit bad teams. I heard that Brady hasn’t lost at home in December, does this really make any sense? Odds are most of those games were against the Bills, Jets, or Dolphins and the Pats lost to the Cardinals at home in Week 2. Unfortunately, I don’t think people will get off their knees for Brady anytime soon but I see him throwing a couple interceptions and going to the sideline to put his Uggs on after JJ Watt sacks him for the game in the fourth.

Cowboys +3 Bengals: This game worries me but if Romo shows up, with help from a returning Demarco Murray, they could win this game, albeit in Cincinnati. The Cowboys are surprisingly only a game behind the Gmen for the division lead. I think they need this game more and show up Sunday.

Jets -2.5 Jaguars: Fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck the Jags. Cecil Shorts, whom I raved about last week, is out with  a concussion (even though he passed concussion tests). I’m a Jets fan (yes, it’s sad) and want McElroy to start but Sanchez should play alright after an awful week. They need to win out against under .500 teams to have a chance at the playoff (why am I hoping for this?)

Titans +5.5 Colts: This game will be closer than people think. I don’t usually take a team getting points if I don’t think they can win the game but Chris Johnson is due for a big game (he’s been due since his signed that contract) and the Colts have an anemic run defense. <Insert Andrew Luck type pun> the Colts may also over look the Titans to next weeks game at Houston.

Browns -6.5 Chiefs: Could be a low scoring game which is a problem for a touchdown type cover but I see the Browns winning by 8 enroute to a Bad-team-that’s-no-so-bad title. Too soon to make bad jokes here so I’ll just include a video made by God on why he hates Cleveland.

Panthers +3.5 Falcons: The Panthers find ways to lose close games and the Falcons find ways to win close games. I can see the Falcons winning by a point or not bringing their all for a division game when they’ve already locked up the division. The Falcons may have a decent lead at half but the sleepy Panthers will get annoyed and decide to actually win a game this year.

Good luck and may you cover!

Update: I hit oil! 5 for 5 so far and hedged the Texans bet to lock in an all-time high in winnings for the week. 

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Turkey Day

Da Bears didn’t do much of anything Monday night. That loss didn’t feel too good. I don’t like the spreads for the Turkey Day games for a few reasons.

Patriots -6.5 Jets: Sure I would take the Pats in this but the Jets showed up against the Rams and it is a division game.

Texans -3 Lions: This doesn’t make sense. Sure, the Lions are home and they typically play on Turkey Day but if I set this line it would be near the 6 or 7 range. Maybe the Texans going into OT v the Jaguars is dissuading bettors.

Redskins +3 Cowboys: The Cowboys are such a ‘Johnny come lately’ team. They show up one week then take a couple weeks off. I won taking the Browns and this is also a divisional game in Dallas (Cowboys don’t do well there*).

All in all I don’t like any of these spreads and will only take them if I get really bored and need something to gamble on after my hangover and before the Turkey on Thursday.

* Cowboys are 2-2 at home this season but 28-15-1 on Thanksgiving games

Good luck and may you cover!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Nothing like last week, Week 10 picks

I didn’t post anything last week, mainly due to laziness, but it seems as though it didn’t matter. The books took a beating in Week 9 as many of the public favorites won. I think Vegas got angry from their losses. This weeks lines are harder than a 9th grader that has Anna Kournikova as a gym teacher. There are only a couple of lines I like. I probably won’t make any parlays, maybe a couple of 6-point teasers.

Texans +1 Bears: This good of a team getting points is crazy. Chicago has a good defense, almost too good of a defense. They’ve scored 8 TD’s on defense and special teams. This happened last week and created a higher score than they would deserve. I’ve always said, spreads do not take turnovers into account. Public is riding too much on Chicago’s last week blowout and I see the Texans taking this, albeit a close one.

Falcons -2.5 Saints: Every smart pick-maker is going with the Saints, which of course worries me, but also makes me think I’m right (and I hate being right). Falcons are UNDEFEATED and are laying less than a field goal against a mediocre Saints team.

Jets +6.5 Seahawks: I didn’t like this line at first but I think this line is inflated, Seahawks do not have the offense to cover this many point, even at home. I am a Jets fan (although I’m debating why this season) so I’m putting this in my teasers so the line will be +12.5 for those picks.

Good luck and may you cover

Beam me up some redemption!

This is all about redemption, I’m coming back with a vengeance. After a couple weeks of stagnant losses, I’m doubling my bet amounts and decreasing the amount of parlays I squander.

Jets -2.5 Dolphins : As ‘Beam me up’ Scotty said, “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” this line doesn’t make sense. For those that took the Dolphins in the last meeting were fooled by an overtime field goal. If you get fooled again on this one, it’s your own fault. The Jets had a decent loss against the Patriots, and although they are banged up, the Dolphins’ best shot at the pro-bowl is their punter. Jets won their last meeting 23-20 in overtime in Miami. They won’t need overtime to get this one done.

Chargers -3 Browns : Are we sure this is the right line? Chargers have a good run defense (70 ish ypg allowed) and the Browns have an injured Trent Richardson that couldn’t get it done against the Colts (I took the Browns last week) with one of the league’s worst d’s. Philip Rivers is coming off an ugly 6 turnover game v Denver but had a bye week to forget about it. Bye week teams are around 70% ATS this season (although I don’t like the other teams coming of byes this week as much).

As I said, I’m taking these teams hard. I suggest the parlay which will this free dollar into $3.50. I know, you’re welcome.

Good luck and may you cover.

Update: The Jets’ spread has dropped to -1.5 and I’m storming mad. There is no reason to not take it at that line as well, except for the thought that I could lose both. Yeah, sure that could happen. 

The Jaguars were listed at +15.5 and +850 moneyline v. the Packers a couple days ago, now the lines have dropped to +14.5 and +750 ML. I can’t see a 15 point spread being covered and the Packers are only 4-3, might see where this line is at Sunday morning.

Also thinking about the Saints moneyline v. the Broncos, have time to make that move, maybe I’ll see how bad my Jets pick is first.

Parlay my picks [Jets -1.5, Chargers -3, Jaguars +14.5, & Saints +6] Bet $1, which you get for free by clicking this, and it’ll turn into $11 when we hit.

Who let the underdogs out? Week 7

Running on a high from the Thursday night wins (Manningham didn’t play so that was cancelled) so I put in a few picks already but I like a ton of games this week.

Ravens	Texans	7
Jets	Patriots	10.5
Browns	Colts	ML
Cardinals	Vikings	6.5
Bears	Lions	-6.5
Over	Under	47.5

Ravens (+7) v Texans: Looks tough with a banged up Ravens D and no Ray Lewis but the Texans haven’t been blowing teams out recently and I like the Ray Rice to tear up the ground game for some reason. This game should be close for three quarters and then I expect someone to stumble and lose it early in the fourth. Turnovers will decide this game.

Jets (+10.5) Patriots: C’mon now? Seriously? This isn’t even nice, the Jets might be bad, and Belichek might want to run up the score on Rex Ryan, but the Patriots have close to no defense, if the Jets don’t score in the 1st quarter it might be over, but what is up with a double-digit spread in a divisional game. Yes, I’m a Jets fan, but if you take the Patriots here, you’re crazy. Did you forget about them losing to the birds (Cardinals and Seahawks)?

Browns over Colts: We know neither team is good but seeing what Shonne Green did against the Colts is making me side with them. Browns would be favored in this game if Trent Richardson was definite and healthy.

Cardinals (+6.5) Vikings: This dog pick could sting a bit similar to how the Vikings burned me against the Titans. Both teams coming off a loss I like the Cards covering in a good one.

Bears (-6.5) Lions: I see a crazy blowout no one expects. Cutler decides to show up, Marshall has a huge game on prime-time and Stafford might do well but I think he falls on his face trying to start up a comeback.

Over 47.5 on the Bears-Lions (Tigers…oh my!) game mainly cause its Monday night. Might double down on this if I’m up after Sunday.

I’m spread out all of these game but if you forced me to give you one pick I’d go with the Browns.

Good luck and may you cover.

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Update: Looks like I’m awful, not just awful but Lindsay Lohan at getting sober awful, at 1 pm EST games and over unders. I’ll keep this in mind for Week 7 but no promises. 

J-E-T-S! & other Week 4 p-i-c-k-s

If I wasn’t a Jets fan this pick would be much easier. I unfortunately suffer through their games like the rest of NY (Giants fans can relate, but they have two much more recent Superbowls) I heard the statistic last week and it makes logical sense. A west coast team has never won on the east coast in a 1 o’clock game. 1 pm EST = 10am PT. That’s not very friendly to the 49ers even though they are most likely a better team. I took Jets moneyline (+175*) and will parlay them (+4) with some other picks later this weekend.

I’m running a great 3-0 in games involving the Giants ATS so I’ll push my luck and see if the streak continues. Philly is 2-1 in close wins and a blowout loss to the unappreciated Cardinals. Andy Reid hates losing, as much as I hated the hook on last week Ravens game, and rarely falters after a loss. I’ll take the Eagles (-1.5) because they’re home.

Of my next three picks, I’ll decide how hard I take them later but I like ’em and I like ’em good:

Bills (+4.5) v Patriots – someone needs to punch Tom Brady in the face, I hope it’s Mario Williams, divisional games should not have this kind of spread in away games. Peeps need to stop betting the Patriots.

Cardinals (-6) v Dolphins – I would like this to come down a bit but the Cardinals have shown they’re legit this season and the Dolphins suffered in the Jets game last week when Reggie Bush (didn’t practice Wed.) went out.

Buccaneers (-2.5) v Redskins – Bucs are doing well ATS this year, meaning they’ve been underrated thus far, the Redskins have been hyped due to RG3 . Defense decides this game, I’ll think about the under (48).

Good luck!

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This does not look good. Jets and Bills got blown out. I got all of my other picks wrong so far. I’ll be saved if the Cardinals pull of a 13-0 halftime deficit, the Bucs can pull off a current 14-3 deficit, and the Eagles beat the Giants. SON OF A GUN! Bad week.

Week 3 picks – Orange & Grape juices

Be it the devil to set the Week 3 matchups this week. There are more home team underdogs and many with close spreads. As I researched, picking only the home team ‘dogs is 53% ATS which may be noteworthy but nothing to frighten me away. If history has anything to say about it, New England hadn’t lost a home opener in 9 years until the (+14) Cardinals gave them their first loss.

This week will mainly be about pricing, I’m seeing different spreads on different books, with different juices. Shop around if you can. As I infamously heard as I was winning Giants v. Bucs, ‘You live and die by the hook”.

All the games I picked are -115 which angered me in general but the lines were the best I could hope for (unless they move the way I wanted before kickoff). This also encouraged me to put the three teams in a parlay instead of taking each of them separately.

49er v. Vikings (-6.5): Live and die by the hook, I like the hook on the other side of 7 this time and think this game may be closer than most would imagine. Either way, 49ers are gold (good pun) this year and I see them controlling the regular season until the playoffs (similar to last years’ Packers).

Jets v. Dolphins (-1): Loved getting this line and will wait for the juice to come down a bit before putting more on this game separately. Dolphins are awful at home, this is prolly because no one really wants to live in Miami). Sparano is now OC for the Jets and was previously the Dolphins head coach. Seriously?! This is allowed? Why aren’t more non-competition agreements signed in the NFL. This should be too easy for the Jets to pick apart a weak Dolphin team. I see a blowout but I also want my 5% for the game by itself.

Ravens v. Patriots (-1.5): Trickiest game of most of them out there. Why take it then? Ravens should win by a field goal. They have a revamped offense, Patriots D isn’t good anymore, and if nothing changes from week 2 Patriots will get dominated [Ravens lost by 1 to the Eagles].

The parlay pays 5.1 to one unit because of the fruit medley (bad juice pun).

Enjoy the games!

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Half time and my jets and 49ers picks don’t look good at all. Got a chance but they’ll need to come out firing in the 3rd.

Darn hook on the Ravens game!