Tag Archives: NFL picks

Picks fitting for the end of the world

21 Dec

bozeekpicks

Not a great week last week. Fortunately, I doubled down on the Panthers after seeing how bad my 1pm EST games were looking. The world is supposed to end today, although I wasn’t given any warning of the skies falling from Australia yet, so I got my picks in already. Waiting on some of these lines could be helpful if you want the hook moved or better juice.

Seahawks 49ers pick
Cowboys Saints -3.0
Giants Ravens -2.5
Browns Broncos 13.5
Buccaneers Rams -3.0
Vikings Texans 7.5

These games are listed in order of how much I like them.

Seahawks pick 49ers – The public my push this line to +1 because they saw the Niners do well against the Patriots, making a statement to be ranked the best team in the league. My issue, and I took the 49ers to win the Superbowl before week 1, is that they can’t win the Superbowl with Kapernick. This is the same reason I’m taking the Seahawks. Russell Wilson has nerves of steel (see the call). Yes, it was the wrong call but that’s still a great throw as a rookie.

Cowboys -3 (+105) Saints – I got burned with the Cowboys last week, I thought they’d be distracted with off-the-field incidences but they took the game into OT and won it. After seeing   the last two weeks, I think the ‘boys are on a roll and take it to the Saints pulling it off pre-OT this time. Calling it 24-20.

Giants -2.5 Ravens – Love the hook on this game. The Ravens are sliding and Gmen are coming back from a blowout in Atlanta. Coughlin may kill his players if they lose this game. I like them on the road to cover the points.

Browns +13.5 Broncos – I don’t see the Broncos running up the score in this one. The Browns could be this years’ best-worst team. A crappy record but decent defense doesn’t allow teams to cover by two touchdowns.

Buccaneers -3 Rams – Yes, yes, yes I keep taking the Bucs and keep losing with them. Something’s gotta change, right?

Vikings +7.5 Texans – AP, AP, AP, AP, AP, AP, AP, is going for the rushing record and should be able to conquer a good Texans run defense. Even if the Texans expect the run and stack the box, Christian may ponder (ha!) throwing the ball against a bad pass defense. I like this as a upset but won’t put much on it. Calling it Vikings 21-20.

Good luck and may you cover!

Shake it like a salt shaka – Week 15

15 Dec

Going 5-1 last week was awesome if not just plain skeet. Hoping for a dog-filled weekend of fun. My picks below:

Jaguars Dolphins 7.5
Colts Texans 9.5
Steelers Cowboys -1.5
Buccaneers Saints 3.5
Panthers Chargers +135

Jaguars +7.5 Dolphins: It hurt me to take this pick but the Dolphins are bad at home and the Jaguars are better when they play on the road, I like where the hook is, calling it Dolphins 23 Jaguars 17

Colts +9.5 Texans: A lot of people are on the Colts this game, I also couldn’t turn down 9.5 points against the team I saw play against the Pats Monday night. These teams are in the same division, but haven’t played each other yet. There next game together is week 17, nice job with that scheduling. Division games aren’t typically a 10-point blowout (ignore last week Seahawks-Cardinals game).

Steelers -1.5 Cowboys: Two reasons, Big Ben is back, and Cowboys will be distracted from thinking about there teammates passing the previous Saturday.

Buccaneers +3.5 Saints: The Bucs have lost 3 straight so I see Schiano pulling out a few knives to get the victory. (Side note: anybody else confused that Schiano wants kickoffs abolished because one of his Rutgers players was paralyzed during a return but he continues to rush the QB when down by 8 with the other team in victory formation?)

Panthers +135 Chargers: I don’t believe the Chargers actually won last week against the Steelers (note if Brown had kicked the ball out of the endzone for a safety, instead of a fumble recovered TD, the game could’ve been different). I think the Panthers are streaking and Cam Newton may have more sponsors than wins but his commercials are hilarious.

Good luck and may you cover!

Week 12 picks, stuffed with leftovers

23 Nov

I’ve had more time than usually to look at this weeks lines and I hate all of them. I think it would be tough to do better than 60% picking most of the games this week. Since I see betting accounts as an investment and I would like it to increase every week, I’ll still make a few bets (some really dumb) and take some of the safer moneylines instead.

Bears (no line yet) Vikings – There hasn’t been a line made yet but it should be around -6. This could swing 5 points (Millman rankings) depending on whether Cutler starts or not. I’ll take this moneyline either way because I think the Bears are better than people are giving them credit for.

Ravens (-1) ChargersNorv Turner is one of the longest lasting bad coaches in the league. If the Ravens play decent on offense, I see the Ravens taking over the game in the second half.

Jaguars (+4) Titans – Peeps are all over the Titans (opened at +3), but the Jaguars are a better team than anyone thinks. Close losses are just as good as a win over a bad team when looking at spreads. Unfortunately, the Jags have lost by double digits in most of their home games, which gives me cause to worry, but I don’t think Moore’s performance last week was a fluke. Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts are good receivers.

Enjoy the leftovers

Good luck and may you cover!

Planning for Vegas

17 Nov

So after a few hour seminar I was awarded a choice of airfare and two night stay at either Las Vegas or Orlando, not that I know of anything in Orlando but it looks like I’ll be taking a trip to Vegas sometime this year. I’ll remember to pack a toothbrush and bring my awful picks with me. Here’s the lot of them, I’m thinking this is my weekend to hit, I already had a few bad weeks and I’m carrying mojo from the last couple weeks.

Browns Cowboys 7.5
Jaguars Texans 15.5
Buccaneers Panthers -1.5

Browns +7.5 v Cowboys: Browns are a decent team as they showed last week v the G-men. The Cowboys are extremely inconsistent and aren’t playing well at home. I see the Browns challenge for the win in a low scoring game.

Jaguars +15.5 v Texans: If you considered taking Texans -15.5, or -16 earlier this week, I would like to meet you. I have not met anyone willing to lay more than 14 points in any NFL games. This is any NFL game and the Jags will prolly play better away from their empty home stadium.

Buccaneers -1.5 v Panthers: This is becoming bet heavy by the public as the Bucs are 7-2 ATS and the Cam Newton polish isn’t ‘new’ to bettors anymore. I like the Bucs to win this by a touchdown and one of the Carolina cheerleaders to slap Newton when he can’t complete a game-winning drive.

Good luck and may you cover!

Update: 3-0! Lovin’ it! With these teams individually and a small parlay tying them together I’m back on the plus side for the season. I will most likely take Chicago tomorrow night in a upset featuring back-up QB’s for teams that I think will make it to the Superbowl.

Nothing like last week, Week 10 picks

10 Nov

I didn’t post anything last week, mainly due to laziness, but it seems as though it didn’t matter. The books took a beating in Week 9 as many of the public favorites won. I think Vegas got angry from their losses. This weeks lines are harder than a 9th grader that has Anna Kournikova as a gym teacher. There are only a couple of lines I like. I probably won’t make any parlays, maybe a couple of 6-point teasers.

Texans +1 Bears: This good of a team getting points is crazy. Chicago has a good defense, almost too good of a defense. They’ve scored 8 TD’s on defense and special teams. This happened last week and created a higher score than they would deserve. I’ve always said, spreads do not take turnovers into account. Public is riding too much on Chicago’s last week blowout and I see the Texans taking this, albeit a close one.

Falcons -2.5 Saints: Every smart pick-maker is going with the Saints, which of course worries me, but also makes me think I’m right (and I hate being right). Falcons are UNDEFEATED and are laying less than a field goal against a mediocre Saints team.

Jets +6.5 Seahawks: I didn’t like this line at first but I think this line is inflated, Seahawks do not have the offense to cover this many point, even at home. I am a Jets fan (although I’m debating why this season) so I’m putting this in my teasers so the line will be +12.5 for those picks.

Good luck and may you cover

Thursday’s Chargers/Chiefs

30 Oct

Awful, awful, just awful. I don’t know how I’m clinging on with these horrendous picks but I’ll keep throwing them out there and see what sticks. I’ll delve into the Sunday games later but here’s my pick (for what it’s worth) for the Thursday game.

I bet the UNDER (42.5) in Thursday’s Chargers/Chiefs game for free on FreeSportsBet.com.

Taking the under mainly because it’s a Thursday night game, the teams have little rest and I don’t see these offenses getting touchdowns over fieldgoals.

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via I bet the UNDER in Thursday’s Chargers/Chiefs game for free on FreeSportsBet.com.

Beam me up some redemption!

26 Oct

This is all about redemption, I’m coming back with a vengeance. After a couple weeks of stagnant losses, I’m doubling my bet amounts and decreasing the amount of parlays I squander.

Jets -2.5 Dolphins : As ‘Beam me up’ Scotty said, “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” this line doesn’t make sense. For those that took the Dolphins in the last meeting were fooled by an overtime field goal. If you get fooled again on this one, it’s your own fault. The Jets had a decent loss against the Patriots, and although they are banged up, the Dolphins’ best shot at the pro-bowl is their punter. Jets won their last meeting 23-20 in overtime in Miami. They won’t need overtime to get this one done.

Chargers -3 Browns : Are we sure this is the right line? Chargers have a good run defense (70 ish ypg allowed) and the Browns have an injured Trent Richardson that couldn’t get it done against the Colts (I took the Browns last week) with one of the league’s worst d’s. Philip Rivers is coming off an ugly 6 turnover game v Denver but had a bye week to forget about it. Bye week teams are around 70% ATS this season (although I don’t like the other teams coming of byes this week as much).

As I said, I’m taking these teams hard. I suggest the parlay which will this free dollar into $3.50. I know, you’re welcome.

Good luck and may you cover.

Update: The Jets’ spread has dropped to -1.5 and I’m storming mad. There is no reason to not take it at that line as well, except for the thought that I could lose both. Yeah, sure that could happen. 

The Jaguars were listed at +15.5 and +850 moneyline v. the Packers a couple days ago, now the lines have dropped to +14.5 and +750 ML. I can’t see a 15 point spread being covered and the Packers are only 4-3, might see where this line is at Sunday morning.

Also thinking about the Saints moneyline v. the Broncos, have time to make that move, maybe I’ll see how bad my Jets pick is first.

Parlay my picks [Jets -1.5, Chargers -3, Jaguars +14.5, & Saints +6] Bet $1, which you get for free by clicking this, and it’ll turn into $11 when we hit.

Buccaneers @ Vikings [POLL]

23 Oct

In the spirit of Presidential debates and polling, I’d like some opinions.

For those of you that don’t understand spreads, I’ll put it in lay man’s terms:

If I were to give the Buccaneers 6.5 points when they play at the Vikings who would win? (example below)

If the ending score of the game is Buccaneers 20 – Vikings 26 and you picked the Buccaneers +6.5, you would win. Congrats, if that’s how it ends up. More excitingly, you can do this here and you can win money. It truly sounds too good to be true but I’ve cashed out $100 from the site and am using it for this season (and if you’ve been following, eh, could be better).

If anyone is courageous enough to take my pick (I’ve done awful with these two teams this season), I’m leaning towards the Buccaneers. Thursday night games have been rather low scoring and lacking offense, a 6.5 point spread is a bit much against the decent defense that the Bucs have.

Who let the underdogs out? Week 7

20 Oct

Running on a high from the Thursday night wins (Manningham didn’t play so that was cancelled) so I put in a few picks already but I like a ton of games this week.

Ravens Texans 7
Jets Patriots 10.5
Browns Colts ML
Cardinals Vikings 6.5
Bears Lions -6.5
Over Under 47.5

Ravens (+7) v Texans: Looks tough with a banged up Ravens D and no Ray Lewis but the Texans haven’t been blowing teams out recently and I like the Ray Rice to tear up the ground game for some reason. This game should be close for three quarters and then I expect someone to stumble and lose it early in the fourth. Turnovers will decide this game.

Jets (+10.5) Patriots: C’mon now? Seriously? This isn’t even nice, the Jets might be bad, and Belichek might want to run up the score on Rex Ryan, but the Patriots have close to no defense, if the Jets don’t score in the 1st quarter it might be over, but what is up with a double-digit spread in a divisional game. Yes, I’m a Jets fan, but if you take the Patriots here, you’re crazy. Did you forget about them losing to the birds (Cardinals and Seahawks)?

Browns over Colts: We know neither team is good but seeing what Shonne Green did against the Colts is making me side with them. Browns would be favored in this game if Trent Richardson was definite and healthy.

Cardinals (+6.5) Vikings: This dog pick could sting a bit similar to how the Vikings burned me against the Titans. Both teams coming off a loss I like the Cards covering in a good one.

Bears (-6.5) Lions: I see a crazy blowout no one expects. Cutler decides to show up, Marshall has a huge game on prime-time and Stafford might do well but I think he falls on his face trying to start up a comeback.

Over 47.5 on the Bears-Lions (Tigers…oh my!) game mainly cause its Monday night. Might double down on this if I’m up after Sunday.

I’m spread out all of these game but if you forced me to give you one pick I’d go with the Browns.

Good luck and may you cover.

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Update: Looks like I’m awful, not just awful but Lindsay Lohan at getting sober awful, at 1 pm EST games and over unders. I’ll keep this in mind for Week 7 but no promises. 

R-E-S-P-E-C-T spells Seattle

18 Oct

I guess this team can’t get the respect it deserves. A stingy defense, and lackluster offense that may take a full 3 quarters to develop but it gets there.  Last week it took until the last minutes of the game for them to cover against the Patriots. It saved me a ton as I was 2-3 and of course didn’t put enough on Seattle (one can never be a happy sports better). I’ve been all over the Seahawks again this week.

Alex Smith threw three interceptions last week and I think he’s due for at least one this week (-180). I thought about that one but I only took Manningham under 47.5 yards (-115) and Crabtree no TD reception (-180). Manningham could be battling a minor shoulder injury and don’t think the 49ers will want to throw against the Seattle secondary when they have apt running backs.

Seahawks (+9) at 49ers

I’d take this anywhere north of 7. I think the Seahawks have a chance to win this so I may round robin the moneyline with a couple other underdogs. This week looks easy but that’s not fair, she could just a prude dressed up for Halloween.

Good luck and may you cover

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