Superbowl poll!

The Ravens and 49ers are in the Superbowl, teams I didn’t like because of their coaching decisions are the last teams remaining and last game of the year to make a pick for. I took the 49ers with a preseason future bet so I will win something even if I take the Ravens. I gave serious consideration to this exact matchup in preseason which would’ve paid 20-1 but oh well.

Ravens: Ray Lewis will be a major headline and their team successfully united around preventing his retirement party. They played better of both games this week. Flacco is playing great and won’t be the worst QB to win it all if he does. As pointed out by a fellow degenerate gambler, the best team in the league doesn’t win the Superbowl. Although I disagree with this, I see his point; that the NFL is the only professional sport not to play a best-of-X series and a team can win it all by getting lucky or playing better on one day.

49ers: Kaepernick is better than advertised but also has a phenomenal coach. Jim Harbaugh didn’t run Kaep’ much at all during the Falcons game yet. The reasoning for this seems to be that the Falcons were prolly preparing for it all week and when a spy is watching the QB just hand it off and your RB will score 2+ TD’s on the same play. Defense wins championships and although the ‘Niners gave up more points on Sunday,  they have the better D.

All in all, I have no clue who I’m picking yet.

Who would you?

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Playoff props galore!

1-3 last week. Shucks. And this week of the playoffs looks difficult. Peeps are going hard on both sides of most every game and only having 4 available makes it tough. Fortunately with fewer games the more ridiculous the prop bets get. My picks and props below:

Ravens +16 Broncos & Texans +15.5 Patriots (6 point teaser) – Sure it looks easy but who knows. Winning both of these pay the same as a regular pick with the regular spread. Playoff games shouldn’t be blowouts and both the Ravens and Texans have a chance to win outright.

Ravens – Broncos U46 – P. Manning isn’t phenomenal playing outdoors late in the season. This will be his biggest test of the season. The high for the day is a whopping 19 degrees. Gonna be cold, suit up and get ready for a field goal contest.

Ravens – Broncos Longest TD yardage U44.5 – I don’t see Manning bombing passes with it being so cold out, nor do I see Ray Rice busting a draw play for 45 yards.

49ers-Packers 1st quarter U9: I saw this prop and thought ‘Wow, it’ll go way over 9’ Then looking at the research, both teams have really low scoring 1st quarters.

As for picking the games straight up I like the Broncos, Packers, Atlanta, & Texans.

Good luck and may you cover!

Prop bets found here!

Update: Ugh, this week is not looking good.

Playoffs?! Playoff?! Wild Card Weekend

Just went through my regular season picks and it looks like I scored a dismal 48% going 31-33-0. Somehow I’m still floating and hope to have enough confidence left to actually post a Superbowl pick. 

Time to use all of what’s left in the account and blow it before the ‘bet-to-end-all-bets (to be continued)’ Only four games this week so I’ll pick em all straight up and with the spreads.

Bengals +4.5 Texans – Although I like the Texans to win, I think this will be a low scoring field goal battle.

Vikings +7.5 Green Bay – I don’t know if I’ll pull the trigger on the streaking Vikes but I definitely like the points. Green Bay in a squeaker 21-20

Colts +6.5 Ravens – I like the Ravens to win but this should be a low scoring overtime battle.

Seahawks -2.5 Redskins – The Pete Carroll’s are underrated by a field goal here. They may be on the road but their D is on adderal so I see them taking it to the house 27-18

Team to win the Superbowl – Well I took the 49ers at the beginning of the season, so for so good but they can’t do it with Kapernick. No rookie QB will win it so that eliminates the Seahawks, Redskins, and Colts. Ravens won’t because they fired their offensive coordinator when they had a winning record and that’s bad karma. The Broncos and Falcons can’t win cause they’re the one seeds. We’re left with the Patriots/Texans/Bengals in the AFC so I’ll take the Texans per above and because I hate Tom Brady. In the NFC we have the Vikings and Packers remaining and above I took the Pack so I’ll stick with them to even win it all.

Packers Superbowl 7-1

Packers NFC 3-1

Texans AFC 6-1

I would suggest taking each time these teams play and rolling the winnings into the next week because it will pay better than the odds listed above. If you really have faith in me you should parlay both the Packers and Texans moneylines the whole way and let-it-ride on the Pack to win it but then again since I’m picking these teams they prolly won’t win at all.

Good luck and may you cover!

For those that have the extra for their picks, sign up here!

Meaning-less/ful week 17 picks

Going 2-4 last week was not what I planned. Glad I picked up the Vikings moneyline though. Week 17 is usually a tough week for picks, as some teams need to win (and fall on their face), and some teams don’t care (but play out of their minds). My picks below:

Colts +6.5 Texans – Pagano is back leading to a pumped up Colts team and stadium. The Texans have never won in Indy and I don’t see them beating cancer like Chuck did. Calling it Colts 23 – Texans 20 [game is ‘marked’ by most books so their not offering a moneyline yet]

Lions +3 Bears – The next two picks I’m taking because of what’s at stake; Calvin Johnson needs 108 yards to reach 2,000 receiving yards for the season. They give him all the passes he can handle to reach that mark. The Bears are not a legit team and I see failure in Detriot on Sunday.

Vikings +3.5 Packers – I mentioned AP being the reason the Vikings would win last week. He wasn’t the reason for them winning but they still took out the Texans. The Vikings are playing to make the playoffs and I think AP’s teammates will play harder trying to get him 207 yards.

Well I’m riding the ‘dogs this week, hope they come through.

Good luck and may you cover!

Throwing up a hail mary

Last week was disappointing not only to lose my picks but to watch the Jaguars under perform in person. It poured most of the game and I left with soaking wet shoes and less moola in my pocket. I don’t typically hold grudges but I’m taking my anger from last weeks game and turning on the Jags against my Jets this week. I haven’t liked any of the spread this week so I’ve decided to emulate my friends horse betting style which is to pick every horse except the favorite and put them in a convoluted wheel. Somehow this has worked for him, I hate the ponies, and prefer S’mores at a campfire.

Texans	Patriots	+3.5
Cowboys	Bengals	+3
Jets	Jaguars	-2.5
Titans	Colts	+5.5
Browns	Chiefs	-6.5
Panthers	Falcons	+3.5

I am picking a season-high six games and hope to hit atleast four (66.6%, devil-like no?)

Texans +3.5 Patriots: The Pats are not as good as people think they are. They play in a crappy division and have lost to legit bad teams. I heard that Brady hasn’t lost at home in December, does this really make any sense? Odds are most of those games were against the Bills, Jets, or Dolphins and the Pats lost to the Cardinals at home in Week 2. Unfortunately, I don’t think people will get off their knees for Brady anytime soon but I see him throwing a couple interceptions and going to the sideline to put his Uggs on after JJ Watt sacks him for the game in the fourth.

Cowboys +3 Bengals: This game worries me but if Romo shows up, with help from a returning Demarco Murray, they could win this game, albeit in Cincinnati. The Cowboys are surprisingly only a game behind the Gmen for the division lead. I think they need this game more and show up Sunday.

Jets -2.5 Jaguars: Fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck the Jags. Cecil Shorts, whom I raved about last week, is out with  a concussion (even though he passed concussion tests). I’m a Jets fan (yes, it’s sad) and want McElroy to start but Sanchez should play alright after an awful week. They need to win out against under .500 teams to have a chance at the playoff (why am I hoping for this?)

Titans +5.5 Colts: This game will be closer than people think. I don’t usually take a team getting points if I don’t think they can win the game but Chris Johnson is due for a big game (he’s been due since his signed that contract) and the Colts have an anemic run defense. <Insert Andrew Luck type pun> the Colts may also over look the Titans to next weeks game at Houston.

Browns -6.5 Chiefs: Could be a low scoring game which is a problem for a touchdown type cover but I see the Browns winning by 8 enroute to a Bad-team-that’s-no-so-bad title. Too soon to make bad jokes here so I’ll just include a video made by God on why he hates Cleveland.

Panthers +3.5 Falcons: The Panthers find ways to lose close games and the Falcons find ways to win close games. I can see the Falcons winning by a point or not bringing their all for a division game when they’ve already locked up the division. The Falcons may have a decent lead at half but the sleepy Panthers will get annoyed and decide to actually win a game this year.

Good luck and may you cover!

Update: I hit oil! 5 for 5 so far and hedged the Texans bet to lock in an all-time high in winnings for the week. 

Wishing for two front teeth and a better year

I think I’ve just finished the worst year of my life so far. If life gets worse than this year, I will reconsider humanities’ existence. To make lemonade out of this situation would be to move on quicker than before and fix whatever it is that didn’t create enough happiness during the last year.

Rams +7.5 49ers: I do not trust Kaepernick even after playing well over the last two games. This again is a divisional game and I see the Rams keeping it within a field goal at home.

Buccaneers +7 Broncos: The Bucs are 8-2-1 ATS and I keep picking them. The Broncos are good, and Peyton Manning made them much better than I thought but this should be a close low scoring game.

Jaguars +6 Bills: I usually worry when I take a pick and most everyone else follows suit. I’ve been waiting for this spread to come out at +3 and I was ready to pounce, but +6, huh? Only way the Buffalo Jills cover this line is in OT and they get the ball first.

Good luck and may you cover!

Week 12 picks, stuffed with leftovers

I’ve had more time than usually to look at this weeks lines and I hate all of them. I think it would be tough to do better than 60% picking most of the games this week. Since I see betting accounts as an investment and I would like it to increase every week, I’ll still make a few bets (some really dumb) and take some of the safer moneylines instead.

Bears (no line yet) Vikings – There hasn’t been a line made yet but it should be around -6. This could swing 5 points (Millman rankings) depending on whether Cutler starts or not. I’ll take this moneyline either way because I think the Bears are better than people are giving them credit for.

Ravens (-1) Chargers – Norv Turner is one of the longest lasting bad coaches in the league. If the Ravens play decent on offense, I see the Ravens taking over the game in the second half.

Jaguars (+4) Titans – Peeps are all over the Titans (opened at +3), but the Jaguars are a better team than anyone thinks. Close losses are just as good as a win over a bad team when looking at spreads. Unfortunately, the Jags have lost by double digits in most of their home games, which gives me cause to worry, but I don’t think Moore’s performance last week was a fluke. Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts are good receivers.

Enjoy the leftovers

Good luck and may you cover!

Turkey Day

Da Bears didn’t do much of anything Monday night. That loss didn’t feel too good. I don’t like the spreads for the Turkey Day games for a few reasons.

Patriots -6.5 Jets: Sure I would take the Pats in this but the Jets showed up against the Rams and it is a division game.

Texans -3 Lions: This doesn’t make sense. Sure, the Lions are home and they typically play on Turkey Day but if I set this line it would be near the 6 or 7 range. Maybe the Texans going into OT v the Jaguars is dissuading bettors.

Redskins +3 Cowboys: The Cowboys are such a ‘Johnny come lately’ team. They show up one week then take a couple weeks off. I won taking the Browns and this is also a divisional game in Dallas (Cowboys don’t do well there*).

All in all I don’t like any of these spreads and will only take them if I get really bored and need something to gamble on after my hangover and before the Turkey on Thursday.

* Cowboys are 2-2 at home this season but 28-15-1 on Thanksgiving games

Good luck and may you cover!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Planning for Vegas

So after a few hour seminar I was awarded a choice of airfare and two night stay at either Las Vegas or Orlando, not that I know of anything in Orlando but it looks like I’ll be taking a trip to Vegas sometime this year. I’ll remember to pack a toothbrush and bring my awful picks with me. Here’s the lot of them, I’m thinking this is my weekend to hit, I already had a few bad weeks and I’m carrying mojo from the last couple weeks.

Browns	Cowboys	7.5
Jaguars	Texans	15.5
Buccaneers	Panthers	-1.5

Browns +7.5 v Cowboys: Browns are a decent team as they showed last week v the G-men. The Cowboys are extremely inconsistent and aren’t playing well at home. I see the Browns challenge for the win in a low scoring game.

Jaguars +15.5 v Texans: If you considered taking Texans -15.5, or -16 earlier this week, I would like to meet you. I have not met anyone willing to lay more than 14 points in any NFL games. This is any NFL game and the Jags will prolly play better away from their empty home stadium.

Buccaneers -1.5 v Panthers: This is becoming bet heavy by the public as the Bucs are 7-2 ATS and the Cam Newton polish isn’t ‘new’ to bettors anymore. I like the Bucs to win this by a touchdown and one of the Carolina cheerleaders to slap Newton when he can’t complete a game-winning drive.

Good luck and may you cover!

Update: 3-0! Lovin’ it! With these teams individually and a small parlay tying them together I’m back on the plus side for the season. I will most likely take Chicago tomorrow night in a upset featuring back-up QB’s for teams that I think will make it to the Superbowl.

Nothing like last week, Week 10 picks

I didn’t post anything last week, mainly due to laziness, but it seems as though it didn’t matter. The books took a beating in Week 9 as many of the public favorites won. I think Vegas got angry from their losses. This weeks lines are harder than a 9th grader that has Anna Kournikova as a gym teacher. There are only a couple of lines I like. I probably won’t make any parlays, maybe a couple of 6-point teasers.

Texans +1 Bears: This good of a team getting points is crazy. Chicago has a good defense, almost too good of a defense. They’ve scored 8 TD’s on defense and special teams. This happened last week and created a higher score than they would deserve. I’ve always said, spreads do not take turnovers into account. Public is riding too much on Chicago’s last week blowout and I see the Texans taking this, albeit a close one.

Falcons -2.5 Saints: Every smart pick-maker is going with the Saints, which of course worries me, but also makes me think I’m right (and I hate being right). Falcons are UNDEFEATED and are laying less than a field goal against a mediocre Saints team.

Jets +6.5 Seahawks: I didn’t like this line at first but I think this line is inflated, Seahawks do not have the offense to cover this many point, even at home. I am a Jets fan (although I’m debating why this season) so I’m putting this in my teasers so the line will be +12.5 for those picks.

Good luck and may you cover