Thursday’s Chargers/Chiefs

Awful, awful, just awful. I don’t know how I’m clinging on with these horrendous picks but I’ll keep throwing them out there and see what sticks. I’ll delve into the Sunday games later but here’s my pick (for what it’s worth) for the Thursday game.

I bet the UNDER (42.5) in Thursday’s Chargers/Chiefs game for free on FreeSportsBet.com.

Taking the under mainly because it’s a Thursday night game, the teams have little rest and I don’t see these offenses getting touchdowns over fieldgoals.

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via I bet the UNDER in Thursday’s Chargers/Chiefs game for free on FreeSportsBet.com.

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Beam me up some redemption!

This is all about redemption, I’m coming back with a vengeance. After a couple weeks of stagnant losses, I’m doubling my bet amounts and decreasing the amount of parlays I squander.

Jets -2.5 Dolphins : As ‘Beam me up’ Scotty said, “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” this line doesn’t make sense. For those that took the Dolphins in the last meeting were fooled by an overtime field goal. If you get fooled again on this one, it’s your own fault. The Jets had a decent loss against the Patriots, and although they are banged up, the Dolphins’ best shot at the pro-bowl is their punter. Jets won their last meeting 23-20 in overtime in Miami. They won’t need overtime to get this one done.

Chargers -3 Browns : Are we sure this is the right line? Chargers have a good run defense (70 ish ypg allowed) and the Browns have an injured Trent Richardson that couldn’t get it done against the Colts (I took the Browns last week) with one of the league’s worst d’s. Philip Rivers is coming off an ugly 6 turnover game v Denver but had a bye week to forget about it. Bye week teams are around 70% ATS this season (although I don’t like the other teams coming of byes this week as much).

As I said, I’m taking these teams hard. I suggest the parlay which will this free dollar into $3.50. I know, you’re welcome.

Good luck and may you cover.

Update: The Jets’ spread has dropped to -1.5 and I’m storming mad. There is no reason to not take it at that line as well, except for the thought that I could lose both. Yeah, sure that could happen. 

The Jaguars were listed at +15.5 and +850 moneyline v. the Packers a couple days ago, now the lines have dropped to +14.5 and +750 ML. I can’t see a 15 point spread being covered and the Packers are only 4-3, might see where this line is at Sunday morning.

Also thinking about the Saints moneyline v. the Broncos, have time to make that move, maybe I’ll see how bad my Jets pick is first.

Parlay my picks [Jets -1.5, Chargers -3, Jaguars +14.5, & Saints +6] Bet $1, which you get for free by clicking this, and it’ll turn into $11 when we hit.

Buccaneers @ Vikings [POLL]

In the spirit of Presidential debates and polling, I’d like some opinions.

For those of you that don’t understand spreads, I’ll put it in lay man’s terms:

If I were to give the Buccaneers 6.5 points when they play at the Vikings who would win? (example below)

If the ending score of the game is Buccaneers 20 – Vikings 26 and you picked the Buccaneers +6.5, you would win. Congrats, if that’s how it ends up. More excitingly, you can do this here and you can win money. It truly sounds too good to be true but I’ve cashed out $100 from the site and am using it for this season (and if you’ve been following, eh, could be better).

If anyone is courageous enough to take my pick (I’ve done awful with these two teams this season), I’m leaning towards the Buccaneers. Thursday night games have been rather low scoring and lacking offense, a 6.5 point spread is a bit much against the decent defense that the Bucs have.

Who let the underdogs out? Week 7

Running on a high from the Thursday night wins (Manningham didn’t play so that was cancelled) so I put in a few picks already but I like a ton of games this week.

Ravens	Texans	7
Jets	Patriots	10.5
Browns	Colts	ML
Cardinals	Vikings	6.5
Bears	Lions	-6.5
Over	Under	47.5

Ravens (+7) v Texans: Looks tough with a banged up Ravens D and no Ray Lewis but the Texans haven’t been blowing teams out recently and I like the Ray Rice to tear up the ground game for some reason. This game should be close for three quarters and then I expect someone to stumble and lose it early in the fourth. Turnovers will decide this game.

Jets (+10.5) Patriots: C’mon now? Seriously? This isn’t even nice, the Jets might be bad, and Belichek might want to run up the score on Rex Ryan, but the Patriots have close to no defense, if the Jets don’t score in the 1st quarter it might be over, but what is up with a double-digit spread in a divisional game. Yes, I’m a Jets fan, but if you take the Patriots here, you’re crazy. Did you forget about them losing to the birds (Cardinals and Seahawks)?

Browns over Colts: We know neither team is good but seeing what Shonne Green did against the Colts is making me side with them. Browns would be favored in this game if Trent Richardson was definite and healthy.

Cardinals (+6.5) Vikings: This dog pick could sting a bit similar to how the Vikings burned me against the Titans. Both teams coming off a loss I like the Cards covering in a good one.

Bears (-6.5) Lions: I see a crazy blowout no one expects. Cutler decides to show up, Marshall has a huge game on prime-time and Stafford might do well but I think he falls on his face trying to start up a comeback.

Over 47.5 on the Bears-Lions (Tigers…oh my!) game mainly cause its Monday night. Might double down on this if I’m up after Sunday.

I’m spread out all of these game but if you forced me to give you one pick I’d go with the Browns.

Good luck and may you cover.

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Update: Looks like I’m awful, not just awful but Lindsay Lohan at getting sober awful, at 1 pm EST games and over unders. I’ll keep this in mind for Week 7 but no promises. 

R-E-S-P-E-C-T spells Seattle

I guess this team can’t get the respect it deserves. A stingy defense, and lackluster offense that may take a full 3 quarters to develop but it gets there.  Last week it took until the last minutes of the game for them to cover against the Patriots. It saved me a ton as I was 2-3 and of course didn’t put enough on Seattle (one can never be a happy sports better). I’ve been all over the Seahawks again this week.

Alex Smith threw three interceptions last week and I think he’s due for at least one this week (-180). I thought about that one but I only took Manningham under 47.5 yards (-115) and Crabtree no TD reception (-180). Manningham could be battling a minor shoulder injury and don’t think the 49ers will want to throw against the Seattle secondary when they have apt running backs.

Seahawks (+9) at 49ers

I’d take this anywhere north of 7. I think the Seahawks have a chance to win this so I may round robin the moneyline with a couple other underdogs. This week looks easy but that’s not fair, she could just a prude dressed up for Halloween.

Good luck and may you cover

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Week 5 picks

Didn’t get to do enough research Friday and had to study during the day Saturday so these may be late but here they are.

Browns	Giants	8.5
Titans	Vikings	5.5
Patriots	Broncos	-6.5
Seahawks	Panthers	2.5 (-105)
Colts	Packers	7

Browns (+8.5) v Giants: I’m forcing myself to pick this game because I haven’t lost in a game involving the Giants this year, took Philly at -1.5 last week. I could see this game coming down to Giants trying to get up by two scores to put the game away. That wouldn’t be nice but I also noticed the O/U is 44. I can’t see the Giants winning by more than 10 with a total so low. Could happen, but I say Browns (+8.5).

Titans (+5.5) v Vikings: When was the last time someone said the Vikings were overrated, prolly when they had old man Fav-re. There’s something about Ma-tt Hasslebeck that makes me think the Titans could win this. I’ll think about the moneyline (+210) tomorrow morning. For those that found the joke in there, congrats.

Patriots (-6.5) v Broncos: Being a Jets fan, I hate hoping for the Patriots to do well, but the Jets v 49ers disaster last week told me to stop being stupid and play the numbers. The Patriots put up numbers whenever they want. Buffalo last week? 40+ and in the second half. It should be a battle of quarterbacks I’ll take Ugg-man.

Seahawks (+2.5) v Panthers: Well I’m already angry at this pick. I wanted the +3 (-130) line but something reset when I typed it in so I’m getting less than the game-deciding field goal. Overtime is a possibility in this game, I’ll look for a line on that and report back. I still think people are overvaluing Cam Newton from his ridiculousness last season. Also like the under 43 in this but OT wouldn’t help that cause.

Colts (+7) v Packers: The Cheeseheads aren’t off to such a good start. Typically the worst team in the previous season is good ATS the following season, the trend doesn’t seem to be following Luck & Co. (1-2 ATS) but it’s early.

Took these all for different amount individually with the Patriots for the most and Seahawks for the least but also parlayed the lot at 20-1. A man can dream, can’t he? Helps when the refs decide how your dreams end.

Good luck and feel free to the dollar below!

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Update: I somehow scratched and clawed my way to a profit this week. Glad to get back on track, I’m staying away from the Texans(-9 or so)-Jets game tomorrow, looking forward to Thursday’s Steeler-Titans game. 

Cardinals v Rams 10/4

Interesting thought on this game…I like Cardinals (-1.5) for the game but I’ve been doing poorly over the past few weeks so I decided to do some more research and try to make a successful prop bet. Got lucky, I stumbled on the 1st half line of Cardinals (-0.5), I thought ‘surely they could cover this’ but with the extra research I noted that beside the Philly game (I’ll deem a fluke because of so many 1st half turnovers) the Cardinals have scored 6, 10, and 0 points in the first halves of their games. The Rams on the other hand have scored at a good clip in the first halves of their games but have not been able to win as many as the Cardinals.

I’m gonna take Rams (+0.5, -115) for the first half and hope this research thing works this week.

Back with more picks Saturday morning!

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Got it right! Maybe the research thing will work out this week. Seems to be a tough week for Straight-up pools (and by that I mean most everyone is going with the same picks. This makes one wrong pick a killer). 

J-E-T-S! & other Week 4 p-i-c-k-s

If I wasn’t a Jets fan this pick would be much easier. I unfortunately suffer through their games like the rest of NY (Giants fans can relate, but they have two much more recent Superbowls) I heard the statistic last week and it makes logical sense. A west coast team has never won on the east coast in a 1 o’clock game. 1 pm EST = 10am PT. That’s not very friendly to the 49ers even though they are most likely a better team. I took Jets moneyline (+175*) and will parlay them (+4) with some other picks later this weekend.

I’m running a great 3-0 in games involving the Giants ATS so I’ll push my luck and see if the streak continues. Philly is 2-1 in close wins and a blowout loss to the unappreciated Cardinals. Andy Reid hates losing, as much as I hated the hook on last week Ravens game, and rarely falters after a loss. I’ll take the Eagles (-1.5) because they’re home.

Of my next three picks, I’ll decide how hard I take them later but I like ’em and I like ’em good:

Bills (+4.5) v Patriots – someone needs to punch Tom Brady in the face, I hope it’s Mario Williams, divisional games should not have this kind of spread in away games. Peeps need to stop betting the Patriots.

Cardinals (-6) v Dolphins – I would like this to come down a bit but the Cardinals have shown they’re legit this season and the Dolphins suffered in the Jets game last week when Reggie Bush (didn’t practice Wed.) went out.

Buccaneers (-2.5) v Redskins – Bucs are doing well ATS this year, meaning they’ve been underrated thus far, the Redskins have been hyped due to RG3 . Defense decides this game, I’ll think about the under (48).

Good luck!

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This does not look good. Jets and Bills got blown out. I got all of my other picks wrong so far. I’ll be saved if the Cardinals pull of a 13-0 halftime deficit, the Bucs can pull off a current 14-3 deficit, and the Eagles beat the Giants. SON OF A GUN! Bad week.

Week 3 picks – Orange & Grape juices

Be it the devil to set the Week 3 matchups this week. There are more home team underdogs and many with close spreads. As I researched, picking only the home team ‘dogs is 53% ATS which may be noteworthy but nothing to frighten me away. If history has anything to say about it, New England hadn’t lost a home opener in 9 years until the (+14) Cardinals gave them their first loss.

This week will mainly be about pricing, I’m seeing different spreads on different books, with different juices. Shop around if you can. As I infamously heard as I was winning Giants v. Bucs, ‘You live and die by the hook”.

All the games I picked are -115 which angered me in general but the lines were the best I could hope for (unless they move the way I wanted before kickoff). This also encouraged me to put the three teams in a parlay instead of taking each of them separately.

49er v. Vikings (-6.5): Live and die by the hook, I like the hook on the other side of 7 this time and think this game may be closer than most would imagine. Either way, 49ers are gold (good pun) this year and I see them controlling the regular season until the playoffs (similar to last years’ Packers).

Jets v. Dolphins (-1): Loved getting this line and will wait for the juice to come down a bit before putting more on this game separately. Dolphins are awful at home, this is prolly because no one really wants to live in Miami). Sparano is now OC for the Jets and was previously the Dolphins head coach. Seriously?! This is allowed? Why aren’t more non-competition agreements signed in the NFL. This should be too easy for the Jets to pick apart a weak Dolphin team. I see a blowout but I also want my 5% for the game by itself.

Ravens v. Patriots (-1.5): Trickiest game of most of them out there. Why take it then? Ravens should win by a field goal. They have a revamped offense, Patriots D isn’t good anymore, and if nothing changes from week 2 Patriots will get dominated [Ravens lost by 1 to the Eagles].

The parlay pays 5.1 to one unit because of the fruit medley (bad juice pun).

Enjoy the games!

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Half time and my jets and 49ers picks don’t look good at all. Got a chance but they’ll need to come out firing in the 3rd.

Darn hook on the Ravens game!

Giants v. Panthers (Thursday, week 3)

Why am I picking all the Giants games? This shouldn’t be happening, maybe I know too much about the team. I’ve followed them from afar since my dad is a fan. Spread opened as a pick and has moved to G-men +1. Since it’s a Thursday game I took  it already (Giants ML +110).

The Panthers might be a decent team this year. Odds at the beginning of the season were that they’d be better than last year (6-10). Highly possible (if Newton doesn’t get hit by a bus).

I’m using simple logic on this one…Panthers lost to the Buccaneers, Giants beat the Bucs. If A > B, & B > C, then A > C. Football might not work like this and it is in Carolina (Giants are good on the road and 4-3-1 ATS away last season). I’ll rely on Eli for this one.

Prediction: Giants 28-17

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