Week 12 picks, stuffed with leftovers

I’ve had more time than usually to look at this weeks lines and I hate all of them. I think it would be tough to do better than 60% picking most of the games this week. Since I see betting accounts as an investment and I would like it to increase every week, I’ll still make a few bets (some really dumb) and take some of the safer moneylines instead.

Bears (no line yet) Vikings – There hasn’t been a line made yet but it should be around -6. This could swing 5 points (Millman rankings) depending on whether Cutler starts or not. I’ll take this moneyline either way because I think the Bears are better than people are giving them credit for.

Ravens (-1) Chargers – Norv Turner is one of the longest lasting bad coaches in the league. If the Ravens play decent on offense, I see the Ravens taking over the game in the second half.

Jaguars (+4) Titans – Peeps are all over the Titans (opened at +3), but the Jaguars are a better team than anyone thinks. Close losses are just as good as a win over a bad team when looking at spreads. Unfortunately, the Jags have lost by double digits in most of their home games, which gives me cause to worry, but I don’t think Moore’s performance last week was a fluke. Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts are good receivers.

Enjoy the leftovers

Good luck and may you cover!

Advertisement

Who let the underdogs out? Week 7

Running on a high from the Thursday night wins (Manningham didn’t play so that was cancelled) so I put in a few picks already but I like a ton of games this week.

Ravens	Texans	7
Jets	Patriots	10.5
Browns	Colts	ML
Cardinals	Vikings	6.5
Bears	Lions	-6.5
Over	Under	47.5

Ravens (+7) v Texans: Looks tough with a banged up Ravens D and no Ray Lewis but the Texans haven’t been blowing teams out recently and I like the Ray Rice to tear up the ground game for some reason. This game should be close for three quarters and then I expect someone to stumble and lose it early in the fourth. Turnovers will decide this game.

Jets (+10.5) Patriots: C’mon now? Seriously? This isn’t even nice, the Jets might be bad, and Belichek might want to run up the score on Rex Ryan, but the Patriots have close to no defense, if the Jets don’t score in the 1st quarter it might be over, but what is up with a double-digit spread in a divisional game. Yes, I’m a Jets fan, but if you take the Patriots here, you’re crazy. Did you forget about them losing to the birds (Cardinals and Seahawks)?

Browns over Colts: We know neither team is good but seeing what Shonne Green did against the Colts is making me side with them. Browns would be favored in this game if Trent Richardson was definite and healthy.

Cardinals (+6.5) Vikings: This dog pick could sting a bit similar to how the Vikings burned me against the Titans. Both teams coming off a loss I like the Cards covering in a good one.

Bears (-6.5) Lions: I see a crazy blowout no one expects. Cutler decides to show up, Marshall has a huge game on prime-time and Stafford might do well but I think he falls on his face trying to start up a comeback.

Over 47.5 on the Bears-Lions (Tigers…oh my!) game mainly cause its Monday night. Might double down on this if I’m up after Sunday.

I’m spread out all of these game but if you forced me to give you one pick I’d go with the Browns.

Good luck and may you cover.

http://www.freesportsbet.com/Would you like a $ bill?

http://topbet.eu/referral bonus

Update: Looks like I’m awful, not just awful but Lindsay Lohan at getting sober awful, at 1 pm EST games and over unders. I’ll keep this in mind for Week 7 but no promises. 

Week 3 picks – Orange & Grape juices

Be it the devil to set the Week 3 matchups this week. There are more home team underdogs and many with close spreads. As I researched, picking only the home team ‘dogs is 53% ATS which may be noteworthy but nothing to frighten me away. If history has anything to say about it, New England hadn’t lost a home opener in 9 years until the (+14) Cardinals gave them their first loss.

This week will mainly be about pricing, I’m seeing different spreads on different books, with different juices. Shop around if you can. As I infamously heard as I was winning Giants v. Bucs, ‘You live and die by the hook”.

All the games I picked are -115 which angered me in general but the lines were the best I could hope for (unless they move the way I wanted before kickoff). This also encouraged me to put the three teams in a parlay instead of taking each of them separately.

49er v. Vikings (-6.5): Live and die by the hook, I like the hook on the other side of 7 this time and think this game may be closer than most would imagine. Either way, 49ers are gold (good pun) this year and I see them controlling the regular season until the playoffs (similar to last years’ Packers).

Jets v. Dolphins (-1): Loved getting this line and will wait for the juice to come down a bit before putting more on this game separately. Dolphins are awful at home, this is prolly because no one really wants to live in Miami). Sparano is now OC for the Jets and was previously the Dolphins head coach. Seriously?! This is allowed? Why aren’t more non-competition agreements signed in the NFL. This should be too easy for the Jets to pick apart a weak Dolphin team. I see a blowout but I also want my 5% for the game by itself.

Ravens v. Patriots (-1.5): Trickiest game of most of them out there. Why take it then? Ravens should win by a field goal. They have a revamped offense, Patriots D isn’t good anymore, and if nothing changes from week 2 Patriots will get dominated [Ravens lost by 1 to the Eagles].

The parlay pays 5.1 to one unit because of the fruit medley (bad juice pun).

Enjoy the games!

http://www.freesportsbet.com/it’sAfree$!.html

http://topbet.eu/referralbonus!

Half time and my jets and 49ers picks don’t look good at all. Got a chance but they’ll need to come out firing in the 3rd.

Darn hook on the Ravens game!