Tag Archives: soccer

Women’s World Cup Betting – opening matches

3 Jun

There’s fun to be had with the Women’s World Cup. I’ve created a similar ranking system to Men’s World Cup (which netted me a nice ROI).

The link for my bets made during the World Cup (WC) is here. The reasoning for my bets is below.

USA (+350) and Canada (+1200) to win the World Cup: These are rather simpleton bets. USA is a homer bet and I actually like the odds. Canada getting 12-1 is ridiculous. They should win their group with relative ease and have one of the easier elimination schedules to get through. They’re also hosting the WC. I know, hosting teams don’t usually win (only men’s or women’s team to host and win was USA in 1999) but I think it gives them a partial home turf advantage.

Nigeria +1.0,+1.5 (+100) v Sweden: Let’s explain these Asian Odds first; by betting this type of line you get both lines in your wager. Your bet is split down the middle, so for my Jackson wager, one Hamilton gets the +1.0 line and another Hammy gets the +1.5 line. As for the match, Nigeria plays way below the level of their competition, but their Weighted Goals For (WGF) less Goals Against (GA) [WFFLGA] is only 0.3 less than Sweden. I like the line and if Sweden wins by 1 I’ll profit an extra Hammy.

China +1.0 (-110) v Canada: There are a few reason for this bet. I’m banking on a slow start for the home-opener. This happens in a bunch of WC’s. The host nation has the most pressure of any team and I could see Canada getting a draw even if they should win. If Canada loses, my future bet isn’t looking too good any more so it’s also a bit of a hedge. The odds on China winning (+515) were too good to pass up and because I like Spain over Costa Rica I parlayed them to increase the payout.

Switzerland-Japan Over (O) 2.5 (-135): Both of these teams give up one goal per game on average and score a lot (2.8 WGF). I like the possibility of a high scoring game here.

France (-147) v England: This should be one of the better games of the opening round. France is a half goal better by WFFLGA. France has the 4th highest WGF (behind Germany, Australia, and USA) of the tournament teams. England is 13th.

Columbia +0.5 v Mexico & Under (U) 2: The combined WFFLGA for these teams is 2.2, Columbia has a higher mark which led me to the spread bet. That’s rather low. Colombia allows less than half a goal per game so I’m taking the under.

Brazil (-225) v Korea: If anyone saw the Korea-USA game and didn’t get extremely angry that the USA couldn’t score against a team that only had possession 40% of the time you’ll understand. Brazil has finishers and will put shots away that the USA didn’t in that friendly. The only thing I felt gave Korea the 0-0 draw was their keeper. I don’t see her shutting out Brazil’s offense and Korea did not have a worthy attack that would be able to score against Brazil.

This will be the spreadsheet of my bets during the Women’s World Cup. I will update every time I make a bet. Feel free to follow in my footsteps as I’m sure this will be winning picks.

Montreal Impact v. DC United 8/25

24 Aug

I like dabbling with MLS picks, mainly cause I have an unsubstantiated notion that Vegas doesn’t know enough about American soccer, or maybe just the people betting on it have no clue what they’re doing.

Let’s see if I can prove myself wrong.

I’m taking Montreal Impact at -0.5 (+111). Main reasons: They’re on a 4 game win streak, have had 3 extra days rest than DC, are home, and are looking to not only get themselves in the playoffs but to knock DC out. DC had an ugly, ref-induced tie in Philly a week ago, then took it to Chicago at home and won 4-2. I think that got the tie out of their system and now play in Montreal in 3 days.

That fact that this has playoff implications makes me want to take the over (2.5, -125) but I haven’t been doing to well with those lately. I see this game being decided on who scores in the crucial 10 minutes post halftime but still have a feeling Montreal takes it. I’ll predict 3-1 Montreal to support the over.

Bet made on:
TopBet.eu


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