Tag Archives: week 1

Raiders v. Chargers

31 Aug

These are some hardcore division rivals and with Peyton Manning now in Denver the division games are becoming even more important. All 4 teams in the AFC West were 3-3 in division games last year. The Raiders are at home, which is a huge advantage in division games like this.

I think Carson Palmer will have an unbelievable season this year. People will knock him at some point during the season but keep this in perspective. Do you remember the last good, let alone decent, QB from the Raiders?

Chargers are supposedly taking a simpler approach to the way they play defense. What’s simpler than not using substance that are illegal (Oh Merriman!)? I see their thought process, they have a good offense and need to find somewhere to improve. A change in the defense sounds about right. They don’t want to make anything too complicated, trying to keep the defense simpler because otherwise they would need to process decisions and thinking takes too much time. Is a simpler defense then faster if they don’t need to think? That’ll work until a few teams run the delayed draw (Oakland did this to the Jets last year) and get burned for 400 yards. I would just get smarter defense, that doesn’t use an abacus to do math.

I’m taking the Raaaaaaaaiiiiiiiiders (+1) in a close one!

Falcons v. Chiefs

31 Aug

I’m taking the Falcons moneyline (-130) as I saw the line move from -1 to -2 and don’t want to be burned with a one-point win.

With the depth in receiving that the Falcons have, Matt Ryan needs to step up and get his team a playoff win. Mike Smith, Falcons head coach, is 0-3 in the playoffs, most recently they were stomped by the Giants 24-2.

As ugly as that score was, I don’t see the Chiefs recovering from last season. Sure they’ve made improvements in their run game but the Falcons have a good run defense. The Chiefs will do alright in the middle of the season, maybe towards the end but I don’t see them as a consistent enough team, that’s good enough to beat the Falcons (yes, I know the Falcons are inconsistent too).

Ryan should be able to put this game away at the end of the third quarter and then the Falcons will most likely rely on their defense to close out the fourth quarter to win it.

Colts v. Bears

31 Aug

I must mention that I’ve been planning this pick for about a year now. I was hesitant with Luck at QB but I’m doing it anyways. I’m taking Colts +9.5.

Confused? Well here’s my reasoning, The worst team in the NFL the prior season (the Colts 2-14) are absurd in Week 1 ATS. I believe the stat I heard last year was 9-1 ATS (in the last decade) when the prior years worst team is an underdog in Week 1. The reason I was worried about Luck is I thought the spread might be buffered a little from Luck-y bandwagoners (aha) betting the Colts. At +9.5 that seems unlikely.

The Bears are a good team this year and typically good at home. They have revamped their receiving core with Brandon Marshall and, my sleeper for fantasy, Alshon Jeffery. The Colts have found a preseason leader in Luck and seem to be buying into his abilities as a rookie. Both teams have had more time last year to prepare for the season and are ready to play.

Cowboys vs. Giants 9/5/12

16 Aug

I’m taking the Cowboys (+3, +110), the Giants are at home after their improbable Superbowl run but have lost a bunch of key players (Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham to the 49ers). My guess is the NY side of the line has been slammed from carryover followers of the Giants Superbowl win. The problem is they are a different team now. They were only an 8-8 team last year so Coughlin may need to re-strengthen the team, it may not take long but I don’t see them being ready for the first game. Cowboys are having their own problems (Dez Bryant in legal trouble) and are lacking a strong offense. Over/Under is 46.5 with juice on the over. It’s a divisional game, that means it’ll be strong defense and low scoring or a complete shootout like some of their previous meetings. I’m leaning toward the under and update this when I make my pick.

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