To Hedge, or Not to Hedge…

My record stands at 15-15-3 and a profitable 8% ROI. There is only one match left in the Women’s World Cup (betting on a third place game is like betting on an all-star game. Seriously?) and my future bet still stands! I placed my future bet months ago. I loaded up as much as I could, getting the USA to win the WWC at 3.5 to 1. When the WWC started the USA was bet down to 2.5 to 1 so I got pretty good value. My options now are to let it ride and watching to see if USA can prevail, winning me a sweet future bet, or hedging by betting Japan to beat the USA as underdogs mitigating my possible loss but also guaranteeing myself a profitable return.

Here’s the scenario in numbers:

If I let it ride and;

USA wins: 61% ROI, ~$390 profit

Japan wins: -9% ROI, ~$57 loss

If I hedge with Japan (aiming for 10% ROI) and;

USA wins: 44% ROI, ~$318 profit

Japan wins: 10% ROI, ~$71 profit

Neutral hedge (maximized guaranteed return);

USA or Japan wins 28% ROI, ~$226 profit

It’s a tough choice because I really enjoy money (don’t we all) and a guaranteed profit but I also want to root for the USA and win more while cheering them on. If you went to your stock broker and they said “Because you invested so well this month, you will net a 28% guaranteed return…but…if you want to risk it, you could make 70% more but you may incur a small loss.” What would you do? I’m still thinking about my decision but let me know what you would do by voting or leaving a comment below. I will update my spreadsheet Sunday morning with my decision.

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Streaks? Round of 16 WWC bets!

Have you ever gone on a big losing streak but know it’s going to turn around soon? I’m not at a big losing streak…yet. I would consider a big streak about 6 or 7 bets in a row. I’ve lost the last 4 bets but I’m still above 23% ROI and floating at a .500 record. My picks will turn around for the round of 16 betting because all of my info has been updated. The group games helped recompute the data and strengthened a few teams, like Switzerland, and weakened a few teams, like France. Will the adjusted data I picked up 6 bets for the round of 16. Some are value bets and others are just plain winners.

Germany v Sweden (-243): Germany is the better team here. They have a 3.45 WGFLGA, the highest of all tournament teams, and Sweden has 1.63. I wanted to take Germany with a one goal spread (-1.0) but the price was too steep. I swapped in the moneyline and expect a 2-0 gewinner!
Australia (+0.5,0.5) v Brazil (+110) & Australia-Brazil O2.5 (-105): The Aussies have looked great so far in the tournament. Brazil, not so much. They barely pulled out a victory against Costa Rica, knocking out the Lady Champion Killers. I could see the Matildas squeaking out a 2-1 victory against Brazil. This should be a great game to watch.

Switzerland (+0.5,1.0) Canada (-120): I went double on this bet for a few reasons. First, Switzerland has played well in the tournament so far, there rankings are better than Canada (and we’re getting a spread!). Secondly, I have a future bet with Canada to win it all. If Canada has a poor showing and loses, I’ll re-coop some of that wasted future bet.
England-Norway O2.0 (-125) & Netherlands-Japan O2.0 (-140): For both of these over bets. I’m taking them at their value. England – Norway should be around a two goal game based on my data set but having the spread at 2 instead of 2.5 is worth betting. The same thinking goes for the Netherlands – Japan game. The data sets shows around a 2 but both teams don’t allow many goals. I thought about parlaying these bets but it’s more likely that one will win and the other will push.

These bets should end my losing, but I’m still a winner (at least that’s what my mom tells me, ha). Do you remember a big losing streak in your bets before? When you came through it did you keep winning? As if everything you bet became a winner? Let me know about those streaks, the winning streaks are fantastic but sometimes the losing streaks are just as funny.

Situational losing and betting

Mondays bets were great. Tuesdays not so much. As a reminder, all of my bets are posted here. The data I’ve compiled has revealed really good predictions for the outcomes of a few games. ROI is still fantastic (~28%) but to get better over the long haul I should’ve incorporated ‘situational‘ betting earlier. Tuesdays losses were due to not factoring in the situation. I’m confident the USA would beat Nigeria 3-1 (they still had the opportunities to do this yesterday) if this wasn’t the 3rd group game. The USA only needed a win to win their group and after Sweden equalized with Canada, the USA could’ve won the group with a tie. Should’ve looked into this more and the under 3.5 would’ve been an easy win. Bummer but this is what the true gambler needs to do. Strategize, evaluate, and repeat.

In the basketball world, Golden State Warriors beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. If anyone thought Golden State was going to win this game, there was no point to debating the moneyline. The spread was Golden State -3.5. I thought this was small but didn’t want an extra investment in the series as I had Golden State to win. The situation isn’t so much that Golden State will definitely cover, it’s more that if Cleveland is going to lose they’re going to be bummed and dragging at the end. Everyone saw a perfect example of this when Curry drove uncontested for an easy deuce. Game was over at that point and the spread wasn’t a factor.

Have you ever hit an easy win from a situational bet? This could include knowing the outcome was going to be slightly altered by current events…you could’ve had the Saints after Katrina or maybe Steve Smith’s revenge game against the Panthers. What were your situational bets and how’d they work out for you?

Women’s World Cup Betting – opening matches

There’s fun to be had with the Women’s World Cup. I’ve created a similar ranking system to Men’s World Cup (which netted me a nice ROI).

The link for my bets made during the World Cup (WC) is here. The reasoning for my bets is below.

USA (+350) and Canada (+1200) to win the World Cup: These are rather simpleton bets. USA is a homer bet and I actually like the odds. Canada getting 12-1 is ridiculous. They should win their group with relative ease and have one of the easier elimination schedules to get through. They’re also hosting the WC. I know, hosting teams don’t usually win (only men’s or women’s team to host and win was USA in 1999) but I think it gives them a partial home turf advantage.

Nigeria +1.0,+1.5 (+100) v Sweden: Let’s explain these Asian Odds first; by betting this type of line you get both lines in your wager. Your bet is split down the middle, so for my Jackson wager, one Hamilton gets the +1.0 line and another Hammy gets the +1.5 line. As for the match, Nigeria plays way below the level of their competition, but their Weighted Goals For (WGF) less Goals Against (GA) [WFFLGA] is only 0.3 less than Sweden. I like the line and if Sweden wins by 1 I’ll profit an extra Hammy.

China +1.0 (-110) v Canada: There are a few reason for this bet. I’m banking on a slow start for the home-opener. This happens in a bunch of WC’s. The host nation has the most pressure of any team and I could see Canada getting a draw even if they should win. If Canada loses, my future bet isn’t looking too good any more so it’s also a bit of a hedge. The odds on China winning (+515) were too good to pass up and because I like Spain over Costa Rica I parlayed them to increase the payout.

Switzerland-Japan Over (O) 2.5 (-135): Both of these teams give up one goal per game on average and score a lot (2.8 WGF). I like the possibility of a high scoring game here.

France (-147) v England: This should be one of the better games of the opening round. France is a half goal better by WFFLGA. France has the 4th highest WGF (behind Germany, Australia, and USA) of the tournament teams. England is 13th.

Columbia +0.5 v Mexico & Under (U) 2: The combined WFFLGA for these teams is 2.2, Columbia has a higher mark which led me to the spread bet. That’s rather low. Colombia allows less than half a goal per game so I’m taking the under.

Brazil (-225) v Korea: If anyone saw the Korea-USA game and didn’t get extremely angry that the USA couldn’t score against a team that only had possession 40% of the time you’ll understand. Brazil has finishers and will put shots away that the USA didn’t in that friendly. The only thing I felt gave Korea the 0-0 draw was their keeper. I don’t see her shutting out Brazil’s offense and Korea did not have a worthy attack that would be able to score against Brazil.

This will be the spreadsheet of my bets during the Women’s World Cup. I will update every time I make a bet. Feel free to follow in my footsteps as I’m sure this will be winning picks.