Kentucky Derby Prep races

18 Apr

I have compiled a list of all the Kentucky Derby prep races for 2016. The list includes the top four finishers of each race and the respective winning Beyer figure. I also included the points that the Derby assigns for qualification purposes.

I made a few calculations, playing around with the points and adjusting for Beyers to see which horse would be the best in the field according to their prep races.

Using the Derby’s points unadjusted results in following leaderboard:

Derby points unadj.

There is no change in positioning when comparing weighted points to the standard points but the ratio notes that Exaggerator and Danzig Candy ran well in their point scoring results.

In my revised points’ spreadsheet, I adjusted the points for the top four finishers to what I thought they should be. I believe this chart better reflects how the horse raced recently and mild position changes when ranking the horses by weighted points.

Derby points revis.

Gun Runner falls to 6th in the revised points and Mor Spirit is the leader. This shows that he can win but had done so at slower Beyers (~90).Nyquist has the same amount of wins, but is barely ahead of Mohaymen (who has a better ratio rank) on the leaderboard.

When I changed the points for every prep race to 40, 30, 20, 10 for W, P, S, 4th the clear leader, in both points and weighted points, is Mor Spirit, followed by Exaggerator, Mohaymen, and Nyquist. I’m viewing this as good news for Mor Spirit because with 2 win and 3 place finishes, this horse can find the finish line while notching a good Beyer to boot.

Feel free to make any changes to the linked spreadsheets and let me know what theories you come up with.

 

-The Bozeek

 

Mild disclosures: My assumed winning Beyer value of The Kentucky Derby is 109. Weighted points would not change if the winning Beyer was higher or lower but the Ratios would. The spreadsheet only includes whether a horse finished in the top four during a prep race. If they didn’t finish in the top four or had raced outside the preps it would change the results. For this reason, one must view the calculations as the horse/contenders best effort (which is assumed would be need to win the Derby).
POINTS: Accumulated Kentucky Derby points from Prep races (no adjustment)
WEIGHTED POINTS: Significance of points based on winning Beyer speed compared to all prep races
RATIO: Comparison of Weighted points v Points, higher ratio the better performance (on average)
RATIO RANK: Highest to lowest ratio ranking.
Derby prep races (no adjustments): https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxHa3oQQog1iQlZFMTJsZFdDTTg
Revised points spreadsheet: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxHa3oQQog1ibk1LaGljb3NpSzA
Equal points spreadsheet: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BxHa3oQQog1id2Nlbi10am5WZUk

 

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Every anticipated spread for the 2015 NFL season

26 Aug

I have estimated the point spread for every game for the 2015 NFL season. See image below. The teams on the left column are home teams and the teams on the top row are away teams (does not factor London games differently).

Estim. spread via 2014 reg. season net ppg, +2.5 for home team, -2.5 for divisional game.

This chart won’t tell you which teams to bet on but it’s a great ranking system and it the data can be used to give estimations of win totals and which team has the easier schedule within their division.

Regards,

The Bozeek

To Hedge, or Not to Hedge…

2 Jul

My record stands at 15-15-3 and a profitable 8% ROI. There is only one match left in the Women’s World Cup (betting on a third place game is like betting on an all-star game. Seriously?) and my future bet still stands! I placed my future bet months ago. I loaded up as much as I could, getting the USA to win the WWC at 3.5 to 1. When the WWC started the USA was bet down to 2.5 to 1 so I got pretty good value. My options now are to let it ride and watching to see if USA can prevail, winning me a sweet future bet, or hedging by betting Japan to beat the USA as underdogs mitigating my possible loss but also guaranteeing myself a profitable return.

Here’s the scenario in numbers:

If I let it ride and;

USA wins: 61% ROI, ~$390 profit

Japan wins: -9% ROI, ~$57 loss

If I hedge with Japan (aiming for 10% ROI) and;

USA wins: 44% ROI, ~$318 profit

Japan wins: 10% ROI, ~$71 profit

Neutral hedge (maximized guaranteed return);

USA or Japan wins 28% ROI, ~$226 profit

It’s a tough choice because I really enjoy money (don’t we all) and a guaranteed profit but I also want to root for the USA and win more while cheering them on. If you went to your stock broker and they said “Because you invested so well this month, you will net a 28% guaranteed return…but…if you want to risk it, you could make 70% more but you may incur a small loss.” What would you do? I’m still thinking about my decision but let me know what you would do by voting or leaving a comment below. I will update my spreadsheet Sunday morning with my decision.

Paying for the Faves’

24 Jun

My record stands at 14-12-2 and a nice 24% ROI. Have you ever watched a big horse race or big game and they send it around the horn to see what horse or team everyone is picking? I despise when everyone picks the odds on favorite and doesn’t come up with much of a reason for it. Those pundits won’t come out ahead in the long run. I typically stay away from favorites for a couple reasons; I don’t like paying more to get a return and if a team knows they’re an underdog, they’ll do almost anything to prove the public wrong. A low-seed playing a high seed in a tournament has nothing to lose. If they do lose the game, they might even get a ribbon for playing well (joke). Unfortunately, sometimes one has to bite the bullet and take the favorites when it’s the better choice. All of my picks for the quarter–final round have a bit extra juice attached to the lines. I don’t like paying the extra juice but we’re gonna need to suck it up to become winners this round.

UPDATE: I’m offering my first guaranteed pick for sale. If you would like my guaranteed winning pick, email me at bxela2357@msn.com with “Japan-Canada pick” in the subject line. 

Germany (0.0,-0.5) France (-120) [& Over 2(-140)]: FIFA wanted this matchup. They got it and I’m guessing everyone will make a World War 2 joke at some point during the match. This is an unfortunately early matchup for both teams. Both teams are fantastic and have great Weighted Goals For Less Goals Against (WGFLGA) in my updated data. Germany has 3.67 and France a sound 2.44. Even though France has a decent mark at 2.44, it’s a full goal less than Germany, I gotta take the lady Germans. I’ve seen Germany give up goals against unworthy teams and France lost by two against Colombia. This is influencing my over bet. The teams ‘goaling average’ (average of WGFLGA and GA) is 1.91, even with the extra juice I see value in the over and predict a 3-1 Germany win if they get off to a good start.

USA v China (-250): There is a huge stat difference between these teams! USA has a 3.2 WGFLGA and China has 0.82. China allows 1.28 goals per game and the USA only allows 0.26. This should be a tough game for China. This match should actually be easier for the USA than when they beat Colombia 2-0 in the last round. I took the moneyline here because I felt a push at a -1.0 line. The line of -250 equates to about a 70% chance of winning. China’s numbers are about 25% compared to the USA! There is a big advantage here.

Canada-England U2 (-125): Canada hasn’t allowed or scored many goals during the World Cup. These teams have a goaling average of 1.02. That’s insanely low. I wanted to nab this line in case it went and lower. If it moves in my favor I might double down but I’ll keep the spreadsheet updated if I do.

I’m split with my picks for the World Cup, equal winners and losers both on favorites and underdogs. When you bet, do you like riding the favorites and letting ‘Vegas’ do the work for you or do you specifically bet the underdogs trying to find value in the bonus odds? Let me know your thoughts in the comment section.

Streaks? Round of 16 WWC bets!

19 Jun

Have you ever gone on a big losing streak but know it’s going to turn around soon? I’m not at a big losing streak…yet. I would consider a big streak about 6 or 7 bets in a row. I’ve lost the last 4 bets but I’m still above 23% ROI and floating at a .500 record. My picks will turn around for the round of 16 betting because all of my info has been updated. The group games helped recompute the data and strengthened a few teams, like Switzerland, and weakened a few teams, like France. Will the adjusted data I picked up 6 bets for the round of 16. Some are value bets and others are just plain winners.

Germany v Sweden (-243): Germany is the better team here. They have a 3.45 WGFLGA, the highest of all tournament teams, and Sweden has 1.63. I wanted to take Germany with a one goal spread (-1.0) but the price was too steep. I swapped in the moneyline and expect a 2-0 gewinner!
Australia (+0.5,0.5) v Brazil (+110) & Australia-Brazil O2.5 (-105): The Aussies have looked great so far in the tournament. Brazil, not so much. They barely pulled out a victory against Costa Rica, knocking out the Lady Champion Killers. I could see the Matildas squeaking out a 2-1 victory against Brazil. This should be a great game to watch.

Switzerland (+0.5,1.0) Canada (-120): I went double on this bet for a few reasons. First, Switzerland has played well in the tournament so far, there rankings are better than Canada (and we’re getting a spread!). Secondly, I have a future bet with Canada to win it all. If Canada has a poor showing and loses, I’ll re-coop some of that wasted future bet.
England-Norway O2.0 (-125) & Netherlands-Japan O2.0 (-140): For both of these over bets. I’m taking them at their value. England – Norway should be around a two goal game based on my data set but having the spread at 2 instead of 2.5 is worth betting. The same thinking goes for the Netherlands – Japan game. The data sets shows around a 2 but both teams don’t allow many goals. I thought about parlaying these bets but it’s more likely that one will win and the other will push.

These bets should end my losing, but I’m still a winner (at least that’s what my mom tells me, ha). Do you remember a big losing streak in your bets before? When you came through it did you keep winning? As if everything you bet became a winner? Let me know about those streaks, the winning streaks are fantastic but sometimes the losing streaks are just as funny.

Situational losing and betting

17 Jun

Mondays bets were great. Tuesdays not so much. As a reminder, all of my bets are posted here. The data I’ve compiled has revealed really good predictions for the outcomes of a few games. ROI is still fantastic (~28%) but to get better over the long haul I should’ve incorporated ‘situational‘ betting earlier. Tuesdays losses were due to not factoring in the situation. I’m confident the USA would beat Nigeria 3-1 (they still had the opportunities to do this yesterday) if this wasn’t the 3rd group game. The USA only needed a win to win their group and after Sweden equalized with Canada, the USA could’ve won the group with a tie. Should’ve looked into this more and the under 3.5 would’ve been an easy win. Bummer but this is what the true gambler needs to do. Strategize, evaluate, and repeat.

In the basketball world, Golden State Warriors beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. If anyone thought Golden State was going to win this game, there was no point to debating the moneyline. The spread was Golden State -3.5. I thought this was small but didn’t want an extra investment in the series as I had Golden State to win. The situation isn’t so much that Golden State will definitely cover, it’s more that if Cleveland is going to lose they’re going to be bummed and dragging at the end. Everyone saw a perfect example of this when Curry drove uncontested for an easy deuce. Game was over at that point and the spread wasn’t a factor.

Have you ever hit an easy win from a situational bet? This could include knowing the outcome was going to be slightly altered by current events…you could’ve had the Saints after Katrina or maybe Steve Smith’s revenge game against the Panthers. What were your situational bets and how’d they work out for you?

WWC: Monday & Tuesday matches

15 Jun

Have you made 30% on money that’s just sitting around? My ROI is above 30% and my record is 8-6-2 (with a few big picks pending). An extra 30% of funds that were just sitting around turns in to a nice weekend.

I understand I won’t keep this awesome ROI climbing forever but when I want to gloat, I’m gonna gloat damnit. Cameroon beat France in one of the biggest upsets in international soccer play ever. Costa Rica tied Korea, which I bet, and was a surprise for some as they were a 1.5 point underdog.

For Monday and Tuesday matches, I’m skipping a few because I don’t like the prices, and I don’t see outright mismatches from my data set and the spread. My picks are below (all picks were +105):

Thailand +6.5 v Germany: SIX AND A HALF GOALS?! What? That’s huge and just plain not nice. Germany beat Ivory Coast 10-0 but Thailand is a better team and I don’t see a 6.5 point spread getting covered here.
New Zealand +0.0,0.5 v China: If I get burned here, so be it. I’m 0-2-1 in bets involving China. My rankings have China as a lesser team than the Kiwis so I’ll take the points and get paid a little for a draw.
Cameroon-Switzerland U2.5: I don’t anticipate many goals in this game. The total combined WGF for these teams are less than 2, so I’ll take the under with the extra juice.
USA-Nigeria O3.5: These teams score a lot but will they be able to against each other. USA allowed only one goal yet but Nigeria has let in 5 in two matches. I think USA should pull out a 3-1 or 4-1 victory.

I’ll be watching a few of these games to check in on my action. It should be a successful Monday and Tuesday. Anyone else like these picks as much as I do?